NBA Finals: Lakers-Celtics

Rondo-Fisher
These two set the tone for their team. When Rondo is good the Celtics are an efficient offensive squad; when he's off, Pierce struggles to get into the game which leaves Allen in the cold and KG all alone. When Fisher is hitting 3's and protecting the ball, Kobe/Pau are free to go nuts and Odom can prowl; when he's off, the margin for error is slimmer and Odom's efficiency becomes precarious. But in the end Fisher isn't as important as a filler-upper as Rondo is as a table-setter. Without Rondo the Celtics are held hostage by Cassell's FG%. Advantage: Lakers

Allen-Kobe
Some suggest that Pierce will guard Kobe but this is the natural match-up and the one I'd aim for. Let Ray (Posey off the bench) mark Kobe and make sure KG, Perkins and PJ are on a swivel to cut him off to the basket. Remember how the Wizards hacked on Lebron? I'd say the Celtics may not be able to avoid hacking the shit out of Kobe. He's a great FT shooter but you can't let him get hot. Allen has to get his points and I suspect at home the double and triple screens will be in his favor; but on the road he'll be running for his life as Kobe pushes him from end to end like Agassi in his prime. Game 7 is where it will all hit the fan. Advantage: Lakers

Pierce-Radmanovic
If Pierece marked Kobe would Kobe mark Pierce? Score-hog on score-hog would either make for many brilliant shoot-outs or sludgy brickfests. Pierce on Radmanovic might be detrimental on the road. In LA, Radmanovic might be more likely to get hot, hit some 3's and pull Pierce away from defensive rebounding--the Lakers' one weakness. FG% is more important to the Lakers (especially during second string duty) and Radmanovic must be a defensive presence in Boston and exert his will offensively at home. The weakest player in the starting 5 has the toughest task, not good. Advantage: Celtics

KG-Odom
This should be the best match-up. KG needs to score in LA, Odom needs to score in Boston, so look for these two to be the most interesting players. If Odom can wheel and deal effectively, the Lakers will kill the Celtics. If KG can use an aggressive offense to wear Odom out defensively and clamp down on Odom's crossover flow, then the Celtics could dominate this series. So many important match-ups. Advantage: Celtics.

Perkins-Pau
Pau has to be a star, Perkins just has perform his role. Here's the tipping point: I think Perkins plays conservative and shines out while Pau flounders and fails to contribute. That's where's it at. If Pau gets off, Kobe will find him all night long; but if Perkins can just slow him down, Kobe has no outlet. Pau has been one of the most underappreciated players in the league for years (along with Shawn Marion, Andre Miller, Joe Johnson, Chris Kaman, etc.) and going to LA has been a boon to his career (in a way that being the MVP of the 2006 World Championship should have). But I've got a feeling he doesn't get it done here, inspiring Kobe and co. to try even harder next year. (Yeah, yeah, hard to craft a screenplay out of nothing but something's going to happen in this series, some narrative will be placed upon it so why not imagine one ahead of time?) Advantage: Celtics (should be Lakers, this is the fickle finger of fate on display).

Celtics Bench (Posey, Brown, House, Cassell, Powe, Big Baby)-Lakers Bench (Walton, Farmar, Vujicic, Turiaf)
I was skeptical of the Laker supporting cast when the playoffs began. But I've been particularly impressed with Walton, Farmar and Vujicic and I think they've got room to contribute. In LA I like Walton to have a few well-timed assists and Vujicic to hit a coupla important 3's; in Boston I like Farmar's pesky play to get a few steals, fast break points. The Celtics bench is a collection of old guys that are well-liked enough by the big stars to keep them around. Posey needs to be useful on both sides of the court, marking Kobe on one end and torching him on the other and I think he'll have enough of that (especially in Boston) to help out. Cassell hasn't made a difference in such a long time now that I think he's just not gonna be much of a factor. PJ and House, too, are of little use in this championship. If they'd brought Powe and Davis along a little more I think I would've liked their youth but giving all the extra minutes to the vets means they're too green (though perhaps a Celtics fan would say they're not 'green' enough). Beyond Posey it is a combination of too old and too young, the Achilles heel of the Celtics. (They should be players in the off-season to fatten up that bench) Advantage: Lakers

After all that I'm going Celtics in 7. The Pistons didn't get them to that point in the last round but I think the Celtics will finally pull it all together when they absolutely have to. The 4th quarter of game 7 will be a classic.

I'm a little surprised at the Spurs and Pistons both breaking down so decisively in the conference finals. The way the Spurs breezed through Phoenix and got it done in New Orleans made me think they were grooving and would be a formidable opponent to the Lakers, who I wasn't really sold on (though taking Utah in 6 is no slouch). Duncan was good but Ginobli (10/38, 14-11 (asst/TO), 14 personal fouls in the 4 losses) just wasn't the same guy this year, Bowen couldn't stop Kobe and Parker failed to control the tempo the way he usually does. Besides Kobe's explosion in the 2nd half of game 1, the Lakers were fairly business-like, they didn't even get pushed.

The Celtics had a coupla those absolute shite games they've shown themselves capable of through these playoffs. But they were better than the Pistons in the 1st quarter and the 4th. The Pistons were maybe a little injured (Chauncey wasn't at his best, Rip had an elbow thing) and a little sloppy. (Good news for the Pistons: Maxiell and Stuckey look ready to play which means Rasheed can move on, maybe Rip too--how would Shawn Marion look in a Piston uni?)