Monday, June 30, 2008

Wimbledon quarters

Women's quarters
Zheng 6 5 6
Vaidisova (18) 2 7 1

Radwanska (14) 4 0
Serena (6) 6 6

Dementieva (5) 6 6 6
Petrova (21) 1 7 3

Venus (7) 6 6
Tanasugarn 4 3

Check this out: This was the first slam in history (men's or women's) where each of the top 4 seeds failed to make the quarterfinals.

Men's quarters
Federer (1) 6 7 6
Ancic 1 5 4

Safin 3 7 7 6
Lopez (31) 6 5 6 3

Schuettler (suspended)
Clement

Murray (12) 3 2 4
Nadal (2) 6 6 6

I'd love to see Safin mow down Federer and Nadal back to back--that's not possible is it? I'm guessing not. I like Federer to absolutely drop a bomb on Safin and decisively dispatch Nadal; All-England Centre Court is where he's most comfortable and he needs to win more than ever.

Sunday, June 29, 2008

G to the motherf*ckin' 8

G8's getting together again, hide the womenfolk. I guess I'm missing the boat but it bums me out that climate change will be taking up more of the agenda than global food security or non-proliferation. The climate changes. That's all it does, it just changes, it never stops changing, it has never done anything but change. It'll never stop changing no matter how many G8 meetings we have. (*sigh*) At least there are no plans to discuss Olympic torch protests.

Main themes of upcoming conference

I gotta say, though, it is nice to see that the ministers last week did manage to stop shaking their fist at the sky just long enough to shake their fist at Robert Mugabe. Human rights for an entire continent is still a ways off but at least the economic powers are paying attention.

Spain 1-0 Germany

Strangely enough, my initial prediction was pretty close to perfect: I like Spain over Germany in the final on Sunday. Turkey exposed Germany's shaky defending (Lahm got burned badly on numerous occasions) and Spain has far more weapons at their disposal than Turkey did. I like Spain to keep pushing forward, beware the German counter attack and salt this game away throughout the second half.) That's not a bad description of the game. Spain controlled the ball throughout the first half and finally broke through in the 33rd minute. In the second half, Germany never established any offense. Even in the last 10-15 minutes when big time games sometimes break down into crazy attacking free-for-alls, Germany just couldn't maintain control of the ball.

No one in the German line-up stood out at all in the final game. Ballack disappeared for long stretches of time and probably should've gotten more than the single yellow card he got for arguing in the 2nd half. Schweinsteiger's crosses lacked touch, Klose couldn't get to the ball, Podolski was negligible on the wing, Hitzlsperger was disappointing throughout the tournament, and Fritz, Mertesecker and Metzelder were hacks in the back--that German D was ineffective to the extreme. I've never seen a German line-up so punchless, so non-threatening and with such hack-y play. Still, a sub-par German squad got to the finals and held a strong Spanish side to a single goal.

Spain only had a few strong scoring opportunities but held possession for days at a time. Torres was too much for the Germans (probably too unselfish for his own good), Iniesta was constantly attacking, Senna's energy spoiled the German's last chances, Sergio Ramos was a rock in the back and even pushed forward well. Spain was solid from beginning to end only the 2nd Euro champion that won every game (France, 1984 was the other). Killer final, an intense and gripping match.

This week's economic events

Jun 20-27

Consumer Confidence Jun (50.4)
Durable Orders May (0.0%)
New Home Sales May (512K)
Crude Inventories 06/21 (830K)
FOMC Policy Statement
Chain Deflator-Final Q1 (2.7%)
GDP-Final Q1 (1.0%)
Initial Claims 06/21 (384K)
Existing Home Sales May (4.99M)
Personal Income May (1.9%)
Personal Spending May (0.8%)
PCE Core Inflation May (0.1%)
Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun (56.4)

Russell 2000 (Jun 20-27)




......... 725.73 (6.20.8) ...................... 698.14 (6.27.8)......
............................-27.59 for the period.......................

Wilshire 5000, 6.27.8


Thursday, June 26, 2008

What I meant to say:

College World Series
I didn't make a pick going into the College World Series because I don't watch much college baseball. I probably watched more in the last 4 days than in my entire life! If I had made a pick, I probably would've gone with either Miami or Florida State, the two trendy squads about 3 weeks ago. But if I'd reached for an underdog, I might've selected Georgia. They were the scary scrappy team from the SEC, traditionally a strong baseball conference, and seemed poised for a deep run. They made that run but needed to go just a little bit deeper. Up 5-0 in the 3rd inning of game 2, UGA needed to find a way to hold on. Instead they gave up 25 runs over the next 12 innings--not so good.

Fresno State avoided elimination 6 times in this tournament and ended up scoring the 2nd most run ever in the CWS so they clearly had plenty of bats in that lineup. They were a good squad that underachieved early in the season and got hot at the right time. Offense is the fun part of baseball and the final had plenty of runs scored. But all that just shows how poor the pitching is in the college game. Also, I know the lack of African-Americans in baseball has been a steady theme for a decade or so, but, man, was there a single black player on either of those finalists? I didn't realize the pernicious influence of football and basketball was that deep.

Euro 2008
I didn't get around to blogging my predictions for the semis of the Euro but I correctly pegged Germany and Spain for the finals (yeah, big stretch). Germany's 3-2 victory over Turkey was a great match. Turkey dominated the first 25 minutes or so, exposing the German D as a bit unsure and slow-footed (especially on the wings). The Turks finally scored after tagging the crossbar a few times. The Germans struck back quickly on Schweinsteiger's sublimely beautiful flick just a few minutes later. The Germans took control after halftime and jumped ahead with about 15 minutes to go (thought the keeper overplayed letting Klose's header slip past him). The deal seemed sealed but the Turks, true to their comeback form in this tourney, snuck another past Lehmann with just a few minute left. The world anticipated extra time but Lahm got loose down the wing (Kazim slipped and fell leaving him acres of space) and pounded home a bullet to send the Germans on to the finals in regulation. Great finish, great game. Though Turkey was wildly overmatched in terms of international experience (6 players had fewer than 10 caps),
they played with great energy early on. But the Germans wore them down in their typical fashion and prevailed.

In the other semi-final, Russia was just no match for Spain. It was tied at zero at halftime but the Spanish blasted 3 goals (all freakin' sweet!) in the second half and the blowout was on. Russia's only threat was Arshavin but he just couldn't get loose in this game, unable to match his all-round badassness from their quarterfinal victory over the Netherlands. Spain was too deep and held the ball for much too long for Russia to ever really be a part of this match.

I like Spain over Germany in the final on Sunday. Turkey exposed Germany's shaky defending (Lahm got burned badly on numerous occasions) and Spain has far more weapons at their disposal than Turkey did. I like Spain to keep pushing forward, beware the German counter attack and salt this game away throughout the second half.

Michael Beasley #2 pick
Yup, I knew Miami would take Beasley. Frankly, Chicago should've taken Beasley--he's the best player available! What other criteria can there be for the evaluation of prospects?

I like Derrick Rose, his performance in the NCAA tourney was spectacular, but I'm not sold on his ability to step into the NBA and wheel and deal right away. I don't see him as versatile as Chris Paul, as deceptively protective of the ball as Deron Williams or as naturally intuitive as Steve Nash. If he's the 4th best PG in the league we can still consider him a success and that should be plenty enough to get the Bulls to the playoffs. But Michael Beasley is the most plainly obviously-gonna-be-an-awesome-pro as I've seen since Tim Duncan--more so than Oden, Lebron, Carmelo or Yao. I know Pat Riley doesn't care for rookies and probably would've given up Beasley for a proven inside presence, but he would've been kicking himself for years if he passed up Beasley. Beasley will win ROY and be a perennial all-star.

Saudi blasting speculators
On a non-sports note, the Saudi condemnation of market speculation and high taxes in the western world was a predictable outcome of last week's big oil summit. And, oddly enough, I agree completely. Look, when the market's rising, the economy is good and everybody's fat and happy, no one complains about speculators. When things go bad, the speculators take all the blame--that's just the nature of the way things work. But the Saudis are right when they say that supply is holding steady with worldwide demand. Yes, demand is rising and looks to continue to rise into the foreseeable future but it hasn't risen at the pace of the price of oil over the last 18 months or so. 1 year ago the price of oil was $69.18, today it closed around $140. Has the worldwide demand for oil doubled in the last year? Absolutely not, not even close. So why has the price doubled? You tell me.

In some sort of full disclosure: I have the rather intricate and abnormal view that USA's problems in the Middle East will vanish when we realize that Iran should be our ally and the Saudis ought to be the enemy. Iran is the vulnerable minority while the Saudis are one of the most repressive regimes left on the planet. That said, shouldn't I be banging the Saudis for their refusal to satisfy our piddling desires? I could but that's just not the shape of things. Adding supply wouldn't stem the rising price because the rising price is not a result of diminishing supply. The demand isn't terribly greater than it was 10 years ago thus the price is being bid up by the traders in the pits eager to seize on any random scrap of news from around the world. When Israel banged with Hezbollah last summer, the price of oil soared. Why? The hostilities had no corresponding effect on production, distribution or supply of oil--Israel and Lebanon are not major suppliers of oil. The delicious subtext that Iran funds Hezbollah has, I'm afraid, nothing do with the production, distribution or consumption of oil. Therefore, virtually all of that $70 rise in the last year is based on amorphous bullshit called 'risk premium', a lovely open-ended term that can mean whatever the fuck you want it to at any time. Pumping more oil would not lower prices--keep your charts and your macro explanations, please. My mind is made up: its speculators. And until Americans realize that the price goes up because we make it go up, we'll continue to bitch about problems of our own design.

Look for Congress to start meddling and--another wacky twist--I think I agree. Don't get me wrong, I'm permanently skeptical of Congress to do the right thing, but with their own pathetic approval ratings and no sitting president to stand in the way, Congress has plenty of room to craft legislation that is even-handed and useful. Skeptical, but I do think something popular on both sides of the aisle is very possible and will happen. And it might not be the worst thing; one could certainly argue that hoarding necessary commodities is a 'market failure'. So we may as well hope those fat cats in Washington get it right.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Added to the Netflix queue

I'm feeling a '50s mode at the moment. Hopefully I'll still be feeling it when these movies actually arrive. And Shine a Light; I don't have high hopes but I'll check it out just the same.

Day of the Outlaw, Look Back in Anger, Room at the Top, Nights of Cabiria, I Vitelloni, Seven Men from Now, The Big Knife, Lola Montes, Ivan's Childhood, Belle du Jour, My Life to Live, The Horse's Mouth, Shine a Light

Sydney Film Fest awards

The jury went with Hunger, a film that's been racking up raves all season. Its hard to get a grip on the local faves as Sydney has a series of audience awards which mingle docs, shorts and features in an unholy alliance. It also seems that venue has as much to do with the popularity as the film itself. Here's the winners:

Dendy Award for Short Documentary: Rare Chicken Rescue
Director Randall Wood; Producers Trish Lake, Vickie Gest

Dendy Award for Short Fiction: Ali and the Ball
Director Alex Holmes; Producer Helen Panckhurst

Dendy Award for Most Innovative Short Film: Ephemeral
Directed and produced by Tony Radevski and Jongsu Oh

Yoram Gross Animation Award: Mutt
Director Glen Hunwick; Producer Beth Frey

CRC Award: 296 Smith Street
Director John Evagora; Producer Jorge Tsadilas

Rouben Mamoulian Award: Summer Breaks
Director Sean Kruck; Producer Caroline Barry

Audience Award: Documentary at State Theatre - Young@Heart
Audience Award: Documentary at Satellite Venues - Anvil! The Story of Anvil
Audience Award: Feature at State Theatre - Fugitive Pieces
Audience Award: Feature at Satellite Venues - Red Like the Sky
Audience Award: Short Film at State Theatre - 'Green Porno'
Audience Award: Short Film at Satellite Venues - 'Frederikke'

Jury President Gillian Armstrong said, "We commend Carlos Reygadas' Silent Light for its highly poetic and creative use of sound and image and the honest treatment of its universal story of love and pain. The second film we commend is Matthew Newton's Three Blind Mice for its energy, passion, superb ensemble cast and as such a fine collaboration by a talented group of young filmmakers…The inaugural Sydney Film Prize is awarded to Steve McQueen's Hunger…for its controlled clarity of vision, its extraordinary detail and bravery, the dedication of its cast and the power and resonance of its humanity."

This week's economic events

Jun 16-20

NY Empire State Index Jun (-8.7)
Net Foreign Purchases Apr ($115.1B)
PPI May (1.4%)

Core PPI May (0.2%)
Housing Starts May (975K)
Building Permits May (969K)
Capacity Utilization May (79.4%)
Industrial Production May (-0.2%)
Crude Inventories 06/14 (-1242K)

Initial Claims 06/14 (381K)
Leading Indicators May (0.1%)
Philadelphia Fed Jun (-17.1)

Russell 2000 (May 30-Jun 20)





.

........ 748.28 (5.30.8) ...................... 725.73 (6.20.8)......
............................-22.55 for the period.......................

Wilshire 5000, 6.20.8


Thursday, June 19, 2008

Jackie Chan doing his thing



Personally I dug Jackie Chan's sublime maneuvers more than his big set piece stunts, moments like effortlessly shimmying up over a high fence or the various improvised props he would incorporate in his fight scenes. But people dig the big stunts, they were his trademark and he made some of the craziest and most inventive action scenes ever filmed. My personal favorite is #2 on this list from Project A: the 3-story drop smack into the ground--then he gets up and has a scene! (I once recommended Project A to the great comparative religions scholar Huston Smith. I wonder if he enjoyed it...)

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Celtics in 6

In my initial prediction (June 5), I took the Celtics in 7 though I thought the Lakers had numerous advantages. All that analysis was fairly useless as the Lakers just never showed up to play. In Boston Odom and Gasol never joined the attack and the supporting cast (Fisher, Walton, Radmanovic, Turiaf, Vujacic) disappeared completely. But even in LA they didn't look terribly convincing. In game 3, Kobe followed the conventional wisdom and attacked the basket for FT's; but the result was a disappointing FT% and Odom and Gasol got froze out of the offense. In game 4, the Lakers finally had the offense rolling then gave back a 24-point lead with an appalling lack of D. In game 5, they did what they needed to do to win but considering Perkins, Rondo, Allen and KG were non-existent, the victory should've been more decisive.

The Celtics played solid D and everyone did what they needed to do. Pierce carried the scoring when it was his time, Allen chipped in the points when he needed to, KG locked down the middle, Perkins was terrific against Gasol, and Rondo distributed with good efficiency. House made the most of his scoring chances and was a serious pest off the bench, PJ was a calming influence and Posey had some brilliant defensive stretches against Kobe. The Celtics didn't put on some all-world amazing performance, they played within themselves, let their D set the tempo and took advantage of the Laker lethargy.

Kobe probably took on too much responsibility and today he's taking the beating that big stars take when they don't win it all. But frankly he doesn't deserve it. He was easily the best player in a Laker uni in this series. No one--no one!--played well behind him. And for good measure, Phil Jax was out-coached, he brought nothing to his team. The Lakers looked overwhelmed and as good as the Celtics were this year, they weren't that great and the Lakers I think were generally considered the favorite going in. For the Lakers to look so bad can only be the coach's fault.

How is it that the Celtics breezed through the Lakers and Pistons after struggling with the Cavs and Hawks? Were they complacent in those early rounds? Or did the Lakers and Pistons just kind of suck when the time came to play? I'll say both.

Pre-pre-pre-season analysis
The Lakers will be back next year. Kobe will be on a mission next year and a full year of Gasol and Bynum behind him will make the Lakers the team to beat in the west. I'd keep Walton, Vujacic and Radmanovic but perhaps Fisher and Odom can be upgraded. With Kobe and Pau doing the scoring, I think they need to add defensive toughness (Ron Artest or Marcus Camby would be huge, stealing Posey away from the Celtics would be nice, Kenyon Martin might be worth a look). The Suns, Mavs and Nuggets are flailing. The Rockets might take a step forward but does anyone really expect that? The Hornets are coming but don't quite have enough and won't be sneaking up on anyone any more. The Jazz are good but need more to get ahead. The Spurs will be back but I think the Lakers will match up well with them--even if Ginobli is ready to play unlike this year.

I guess I like the Celtics in the east. But the Pistons and Cavs need to make moves and with Miami, Chicago and Washington having some wheel-and-deal potential, the east could look totally different by opening day.

Euro 2008 quarterfinals

Damn, Portugal-Germany in the quarters?!?! I thought this would be the finest match of the tournament and perhaps it will. But it's so far from the final. Portugal has looked confident and strong, easily handling Turkey and Czech (and rolling over for host Switzerland). Germany is solid as always but don't look like a classic German squad, they're offensively stagnant and open to getting stung by the likes of Croatia. I'll take Portugal 2-1.

Croatia shocked the Germans and ended up on top of Group B. Turkey couldn't best Portugal but have showed some firepower up front. Croatia's ability to get serious action going in Turkey's box will make the difference, but I can see Turkey counterattacking to good effect. I like Turkey 1-0.

The Netherlands are the team to beat at this point. They're playing classic Dutch football: solid ball control that leads to deadly shots on goal. ('Total Football' sounds like one of those vague faddish business strategies, doesn't it? Does anyone play 'Just in Time Football'?) I underestimated the Dutch but, man, they look fuckin' good! Russia, on the other hand, has been one of my least favorite teams so far. The defenders show little confidence in their midfield and kick the ball around aimlessly in the back. If the Russians don't push forward, they will get burned early and often. I'll take the Netherlands 3-1.

Spain has looked pretty good, I usually find them disappointing. They always have so much talent but invariably come up short. Italy ran into a Dutch buzzsaw but dueled France to a victory and handled their business against Romania. This is the toughest call. I'll go with Spain to keep it going against an Italian side that's won plenty already. Spain 2-1.

Food, fuel, finance

International bigwigs gathered in Malaysia to discuss the economic horizons for the biggest continent. Predictably it centered around rising food and fuel costs. Personally I believe that these rising costs are largely the result of the natural rise in demand worldwide--it's a good sign! It means that more people want better lives, they have wider desires and opportunities than they've ever known and prices get driven up satisfying this growth of personal wealth. Sure, there are other factors but largely this rise of costs is perfectly natural and, while not desirable in itself, not indicative of bad times to come. My view is perhaps peculiarly rosy but it'll take time for the markets to digest this growth. The downside of this current economic stagnation is that the impatient citizens of the world (re: fatass white Americans) will demand their governments do more than governments are actually capable of. Raising taxes and tariffs (what else can a government do really?) is not the answer to the current problems--it will only raise prices further! It will not save anyone now or tomorrow and will wreak havoc in the developing world.

The Asians will drive the future economy but only if the American markets allow them to develop positively. Is my model the correct one? We'll see, but I foresee an eventual upswing that will dwarf any period of economic growth civilization has ever seen.

World Economic Forum on East Asia

Monday, June 16, 2008

Tony Awards

BEST MUSICAL
In the Heights

BEST PLAY
August: Osage County

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
South Pacific

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Boeing-Boeing

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Passing Strange, Stew

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (MUSIC AND/OR LYRICS) WRITTEN FOR THE THEATER
In the Heights, Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
Mark Rylance, Boeing-Boeing

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Deanna Dunagan, August: Osage County

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Paulo Szot, South Pacific

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Patti LuPone, Gypsy

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Jim Norton, The Seafarer

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Rondi Reed, August: Osage County

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Boyd Gaines, Gypsy

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Laura Benanti, Gypsy

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Anna D. Shapiro, August: Osage County

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Bartlett Sher, South Pacific

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Andy Blankenbuehler, In the Heights

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Alex Lacamoire and Bill Sherman, In the Heights

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
Todd Rosenthal, August: Osage County

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Micheal Yeargan, South Pacific

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
Katrina Lindsay, Les Liaisons Dangereuses

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Catherine Zuber, South Pacific

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Kevin Adams, The 39 Steps

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Donald Holder, South Pacific

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Mic Pool, The 39 Steps

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Scott Lehrer, South Pacific

SPECIAL TONY AWARD FOR LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT IN THE THEATER
Stephen Sondheim

REGIONAL THEATER TONY AWARD
Chicago Shakespeare Theater

SPECIAL TONY AWARD
Robert Russell Bennett

I'm a huge Stew fan, he's been one of my favorite songwriters for years, a biting and clever wit within intricate rockin' arrangements. He's a badass and it doesn't surprise me that he's written a show, his song style format lent itself well to that and his quality is apparent. I'm into The 39 Steps winning sound and lighting design, sounds like a well-crafted treat. Otherwise, this is just a bunch of plays I'll never see.

91 at Torrey Pines

Today's playoff between Tiger Woods and Rocco Mediate was the best golf I've ever seen. The interplay between the two was riveting. Rocco bogey-ed the 1st and it didn't look good, Tiger seemed poised to grab the lead early and sit on it. But Rocco just missed an ace on the third while Tiger buried his drive in the sand (when was the last time you saw a guy shoot 3 times in a row?) and the lead was wrested back for a while. When Tiger birdy-ed 6 and 7 and Rocco bogey-ed 9 and 10, I figured that was it. Tiger was settling into a groove as Rocco struggled and it looked like a 3 stroke lead going into a back nine that Tiger has destroyed all weekend long would be more than enough for another major for Tiger.

Amazingly, Rocco bested Tiger on 11, 12 and 15 and was one up with 3 holes remaining. I didn't see that coming. I'm not some crazy Tiger guy but I never doubt the dude, when he looks ready to win, he does. Lately he hasn't been peaking in the majors and has lost out to the likes of Angel Cabrera, Zach Johnson and Trevor Immelman. Coming in I figured Tiger would finish it off but I gave Mediate a puncher's chance--you never know, in golf one bad strike can be devastating. But when Tiger pulled ahead on the turn, it looked like he'd be leaving Rocco behind the way Big Brown dusted the field in the Derby (remember back when Big Brown was an exciting up-and-comer?). Tiger always wins and that's fine but its better when he gets pushed, when he has to rise above the chaff.

Tiger had 18 in his back pocket all week and surely that's where he intended to make his stand. Rocco drove into the fairway bunker and had to lay up while Tiger was free to go long ball. Tiger finished the job--and put it on Rocco to sink the final ball--and it was on to sudden death. I assumed they'd start back at 1, which would've given Rocco a decent shot at a quick victory as Tiger butchered the 1st all week. Then I thought I heard the announcer say they'd be starting at 17, with Tiger's favorite hole (#18) just up ahead. Instead they played 7. It was over quick, though, Rocco shanked his drive, then shanked the recovery into a drop shot. That was ball game. It would've required a vandeveldian effort from Tiger to blow that gift and indeed Tiger just missed a dagger-like birdie.

For the previous 3 days Tiger routinely winced after his drives, clearly now completely healed from recent knee surgery. Today he largely looked comfortable and healthy. His driver was better today than he'd looked so far and his putter was hot and cold. Rocco Mediate played the round of his life today and good for him, I wish he'd pulled it out. Still he played his best and put on a great show and that's all right with me. (Check it out: Calaway golf (ELY), Mediate's sponsor, saw its fortunes rise and fall with Rocco's putter)

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

You Killed Me

This video always gets me. It doesn't really make much sense (who pours sugar on their coiff before bed?), but when they flip and it rolls back, I'm mesmerized. Gondry at his best.

Cibo Matto -- 'Sugar Water'

Monday, June 9, 2008

Talkin' shop in sunny St. Pete

Just a single press release and a 20-minute You Tube clip of President Medvedev from the 3 day conference convened by the World Economic Forum, apparently Russia doesn't need or want the publicity. The CEO of Coca-Cola, Muhtar A. Kent, was quite impressed with the new Russian president, widely thought to be a Putin's puppet. He manages to say virtually nothing in his press conference, suggesting he is indeed an impressively western-ized politician.

World Economic Forum -- Russia CEO Roundtable
Dmitry Medvedev News Conference

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Belmont Park,11th Race - June 7, 2008

$1,000,000 Belmont S. (G1)

6 Da' Tara 79.00 28.00 14.80
4 Denis of Cork ..... 5.40 4.10
8 DH - Anak Nakal ......... 6.20
9 DH - Ready's Echo ....... 6.20

Finish Time: 2:29.65
Scratched: Casino Drive
Also ran: Macho Again, Tale of Ekati, Guadalcanal, Icabad Crane and Big Brown
Winning Trainer: Zito Nicholas P
Owner: LaPenta Robert V.

Damn, looked like Big Brown was gonna do it but couldn't break through the pack. Going into the final turn I thought I saw him make his push to the outside but he never got his speed up and before I knew he had just disappeared from view. One of the replays showed him getting clopped trying to make his passing move. On that hot sand in the humid sun, I imagine that shit hurts. He lost his momentum and Desourmeaux shut him down. Horse racing hype is officially over til May.

Today in Sydney

Son of Rambow has been a festival favorite for the last few months. Kung Fu Panda isn't the only American film playing, there's also one called Momma's Man (sounds talk-y). There's a new Takashi Miike; I believe I've seen enough Miike to last me a lifetime but his titles are always intriguing. I saw an Ulrich Seidl film a while back that was a documentary about people and their pets, it was wacky and I give it a big thumbs up; I believe he's moved on from docs and makes fiction film now. Import/Export sounds intriguing. A coupla of classic screenings: The Life and Death of Colonel Blimp (1943), Distant Voices, Still Lives (1988). A handful of British films and a coupla French, Australian and Israeli, as well. Denmark, Thailand, Japan, Singapore, Brazil, China and Mexico also represented.

Sydney Film Festival

Russell 2000 (May 30-Jun 6)









......... 748.28 (5.30.8) ......................740.37 (6.6.8)......
............................-7.91 for the week.......................

This week's economic events

6.2.8 -- 6.6.8

Construction Spending Apr (-0.4%)
ISM Index May (49.6)
Auto Sales May (5.3M)
Truck Sales May (5.1M)
Factory Orders Apr (1.1%)
ADP Employment May (40K)
Productivity-Rev. Q1 (2.6%)
ISM Services May (51.7)
Crude Inventories 05/31 (-4802K)
Initial Claims 05/31 (357K)
Average Workweek May (33.7)
Hourly Earnings May (0.3%)
Nonfarm Payrolls May (-49K)
Unemployment Rate May (5.5%)
Wholesale Inventories Apr (1.3%)
Consumer Credit Apr ($8.9B)

Wilshire 5000, 6.6.8


Capital flows in sub-Saharan Afica

Checked out two podcasts from the World Economic Forum's symposium on Africa. Neither were terribly substantive though its nice(?) to see that African journalists are as insular and self-absorbed as their western counterparts. Its an arrogance that comes from ignorance: reporters always think they're smartest people in the room but then they're always surprised. They discussed Barak Obama's victory over Hillary as an impressive hard fought campaign against a formidable veteran. Hillary didn't win but she managed to make herself look like the biggest second placer since Alydar.

One of the discussions largely revolves around Zimbabwe and ponders Mugabe's use of food aid as a weapon. Dude, he bulldozes houses in some of the poorest neighborhoods on the planet, you think he won't starve his enemies? This guy is a throwback to the days when dictator's could openly pillage. The UN may be a bureaucratic anachronism but occasionally giving worldwide attention to goons like Mugabe becomes an opportunity for other politicians around the world to pile on a guy less popular than they are. Turning our politicians into image-ific entertainers may yet be useful (but why is Mugabe still in power?).

Leadership that is beholden to the people would be a good place to start. European, American and Chinese interlopers traditionally have benefited from dictatorships around the world most specifically in Africa. The dearth of political opposition means your bribes are better spent, more efficient and in the hands of people who can actually get shit done. In a democratic system you gotta grease senators, judges, and other bureaucrats along the way--and you still may not get what you want! Power is dispersed in a democracy. This is why Mussolini thought Fascism was great for business. Until you realize that without an expanding consumer class, business grinds to a halt.

This new global realpolitik seems to be pushing for more transparency and an understanding that middle classes must emerge for economies to approach their potential. Hopefully leaders will see their people as their greatest asset rather than they're greatest threat. Hopefully capital investment will become more rational, more reliant on faithful and capable stewards of civic infrastructure rather than the greediest local power broker. Dictatorships limit civic participation and encourage fear and sloth, this is no good for the workers--who must become the consumers. Democracies encourage peaceful participation where societies may be built rather than ruled but they can only rise from an educated and motivated populace.

As the global economy grows it cannot survive simply writing off certain resources--namely humans! The global order must incorporate all populations. Africa has a long way to go to meet the demands of the global economy. But economic forces are driven by momentum (inertial) so any move in the right direction opens the possibility of advancement.

African Headlines Roundtable

Thursday, June 5, 2008

NBA Finals: Lakers-Celtics

Rondo-Fisher
These two set the tone for their team. When Rondo is good the Celtics are an efficient offensive squad; when he's off, Pierce struggles to get into the game which leaves Allen in the cold and KG all alone. When Fisher is hitting 3's and protecting the ball, Kobe/Pau are free to go nuts and Odom can prowl; when he's off, the margin for error is slimmer and Odom's efficiency becomes precarious. But in the end Fisher isn't as important as a filler-upper as Rondo is as a table-setter. Without Rondo the Celtics are held hostage by Cassell's FG%. Advantage: Lakers

Allen-Kobe
Some suggest that Pierce will guard Kobe but this is the natural match-up and the one I'd aim for. Let Ray (Posey off the bench) mark Kobe and make sure KG, Perkins and PJ are on a swivel to cut him off to the basket. Remember how the Wizards hacked on Lebron? I'd say the Celtics may not be able to avoid hacking the shit out of Kobe. He's a great FT shooter but you can't let him get hot. Allen has to get his points and I suspect at home the double and triple screens will be in his favor; but on the road he'll be running for his life as Kobe pushes him from end to end like Agassi in his prime. Game 7 is where it will all hit the fan. Advantage: Lakers

Pierce-Radmanovic
If Pierece marked Kobe would Kobe mark Pierce? Score-hog on score-hog would either make for many brilliant shoot-outs or sludgy brickfests. Pierce on Radmanovic might be detrimental on the road. In LA, Radmanovic might be more likely to get hot, hit some 3's and pull Pierce away from defensive rebounding--the Lakers' one weakness. FG% is more important to the Lakers (especially during second string duty) and Radmanovic must be a defensive presence in Boston and exert his will offensively at home. The weakest player in the starting 5 has the toughest task, not good. Advantage: Celtics

KG-Odom
This should be the best match-up. KG needs to score in LA, Odom needs to score in Boston, so look for these two to be the most interesting players. If Odom can wheel and deal effectively, the Lakers will kill the Celtics. If KG can use an aggressive offense to wear Odom out defensively and clamp down on Odom's crossover flow, then the Celtics could dominate this series. So many important match-ups. Advantage: Celtics.

Perkins-Pau
Pau has to be a star, Perkins just has perform his role. Here's the tipping point: I think Perkins plays conservative and shines out while Pau flounders and fails to contribute. That's where's it at. If Pau gets off, Kobe will find him all night long; but if Perkins can just slow him down, Kobe has no outlet. Pau has been one of the most underappreciated players in the league for years (along with Shawn Marion, Andre Miller, Joe Johnson, Chris Kaman, etc.) and going to LA has been a boon to his career (in a way that being the MVP of the 2006 World Championship should have). But I've got a feeling he doesn't get it done here, inspiring Kobe and co. to try even harder next year. (Yeah, yeah, hard to craft a screenplay out of nothing but something's going to happen in this series, some narrative will be placed upon it so why not imagine one ahead of time?) Advantage: Celtics (should be Lakers, this is the fickle finger of fate on display).

Celtics Bench (Posey, Brown, House, Cassell, Powe, Big Baby)-Lakers Bench (Walton, Farmar, Vujicic, Turiaf)
I was skeptical of the Laker supporting cast when the playoffs began. But I've been particularly impressed with Walton, Farmar and Vujicic and I think they've got room to contribute. In LA I like Walton to have a few well-timed assists and Vujicic to hit a coupla important 3's; in Boston I like Farmar's pesky play to get a few steals, fast break points. The Celtics bench is a collection of old guys that are well-liked enough by the big stars to keep them around. Posey needs to be useful on both sides of the court, marking Kobe on one end and torching him on the other and I think he'll have enough of that (especially in Boston) to help out. Cassell hasn't made a difference in such a long time now that I think he's just not gonna be much of a factor. PJ and House, too, are of little use in this championship. If they'd brought Powe and Davis along a little more I think I would've liked their youth but giving all the extra minutes to the vets means they're too green (though perhaps a Celtics fan would say they're not 'green' enough). Beyond Posey it is a combination of too old and too young, the Achilles heel of the Celtics. (They should be players in the off-season to fatten up that bench) Advantage: Lakers

After all that I'm going Celtics in 7. The Pistons didn't get them to that point in the last round but I think the Celtics will finally pull it all together when they absolutely have to. The 4th quarter of game 7 will be a classic.

I'm a little surprised at the Spurs and Pistons both breaking down so decisively in the conference finals. The way the Spurs breezed through Phoenix and got it done in New Orleans made me think they were grooving and would be a formidable opponent to the Lakers, who I wasn't really sold on (though taking Utah in 6 is no slouch). Duncan was good but Ginobli (10/38, 14-11 (asst/TO), 14 personal fouls in the 4 losses) just wasn't the same guy this year, Bowen couldn't stop Kobe and Parker failed to control the tempo the way he usually does. Besides Kobe's explosion in the 2nd half of game 1, the Lakers were fairly business-like, they didn't even get pushed.

The Celtics had a coupla those absolute shite games they've shown themselves capable of through these playoffs. But they were better than the Pistons in the 1st quarter and the 4th. The Pistons were maybe a little injured (Chauncey wasn't at his best, Rip had an elbow thing) and a little sloppy. (Good news for the Pistons: Maxiell and Stuckey look ready to play which means Rasheed can move on, maybe Rip too--how would Shawn Marion look in a Piston uni?)

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Get Happy-Go-Lucky!

The Sydney Film Festival opens with Mike Leigh's new one. It's a good looking festival, reminds me of San Francisco: not ground-breaking but a deluge of international titles for the local cineastes.

Euro 2008 update

Starts this weekend and once it starts its quite an avalanche of matches. 2 matches a day from Jun 7-18. Then one a day til Jun 22. Then they mellow out into the semi-finals. Damn, that's a lot of action coming up.

ESPN/ABC is gonna have every single game. Nice. ESPN spends a lot of time bagging on soccer but no sports broadcaster has ever come close to being as good for soccer as ESPN has been. Soccer will never be as popular as the NFL, yeah, I get it. But it still has plenty of room to expand as a sport for suburban youths and advertisers.

Time to make your picks. Here's mine:

Group A
Portugal
Switzerland
Turkey
Czech Republic

Group B
Germany
Croatia
Poland
Austria

Group C
Italy
France
Netherlands
Romania

Group D
Spain
Greece
Sweden
Russia

Quarters
Portugal over Croatia
Germany over Switzerland
Italy over Greece
Spain over France

Semis
Portugal over Germany (match of the tourney)
Italy over Spain

Final
Portugal over Italy

If Cristian Ronaldo still has his Champions League form, Portugal will be the team to beat. When I sat down I figured I'd end up with Germany winning and they should be solid and ready to kick some ass after (what I thought was) a mediocre 3rd place in World Cup 2006. But I believe I will stick with team Ronaldo to edge past the Germans.

On the other side I always find myself rooting for the eastern Euros over the typical dominators like Italy, Spain and France. I've been waiting for years now for Russia to reclaim the dominance of the Soviets back in 60's when they were a routine fixture in the finals. Maybe this year's the year that Russia finally puts together a dominating attack and makes a run at the whole thing. Doubt it.

Hey Bo Diddley

The great Bo Diddley passed on the other day. Here's a clip from his prime rocking days. Dig the band, dig the audience, dig it all, man.

NBA Moves

I think an NBA coach is a bit like a screenwriter: you're never exactly sure what he contributes but you can't do it without him. Look at the Knicks: Isiah Thomas thought he could accumulate high priced talent and the championships would just magically appear. Didn't happen. He never needed coaching and he thinks good players never do. Are the Knicks not talented enough? Are you kidding? They have plenty of talent to make a run in the east. They're not stiffs, they're headcases and that's where Isiah's skills as a head coach needed to come out. Isiah apparently does not have those skills. I'm not convinced Mike D'antoni does either but I can appreciate the dude picking up a hefty pay check and testing his abilities on the big stage.

Today the Pistons fired Flip Saunders. That's fine. Flip wasn't the problem and he wasn't the solution so getting rid of him can't be that big of a deal. Besides he's free now to go to Phoenix and pick up where D'antoni left off (namely, 65 wins and a playoff loss to San Antonio). For a decade Saunders lived off of KG's loyalty and Kevin McHale's inability to scrounge up somebody better. In Detroit he had to prove himself to the players and he just never did. 2 years ago against the Heat they had an identity crisis; last year against the Cavs they ran into a superstar putting it into overdrive; this year against the mighty talented Celtics they had injuries. Not his fault but he didn't overcome the obstacles and so after 3 years it's probably time for the team to find a new inspiration/scapegoat.

Surely this was so Joe Dumars could grab Avery Johnson, a coach who might actually make the Pistons better. AJ strikes me as the kind of guy that the Pistons will actually listen to unlike Saunders who was always just a stand-in until he won a ring. AJ understands these players and the position they find themselves in and I think he makes the Pistons more dangerous than they've been since Larry Brown checked out for the big money in NYC.

I thought AJ was the perfect choice for the Bulls but they hired Doug Collins instead. Why bother? I don't even find Collins to be a noteworthy TV analyst, so how's he gonna do with that ragtag bunch? The Bulls won't be as bad as this past year but that's not saying much considering how much young talent they have (with Derrick Rose on the way). The Bulls need discipline and a flexible game plan, both of which Avery Johnson would've been better at than Collins.

So why isn't AJ still in Dallas? I don't know. Granted, they've disappointed the last 2 years but I wouldn't blame Johnson for that. Blame that aging roster and the loudmouth owner's inability to change with the times. (Uh-oh, doesn't sound good for Yahoo) Rick Carlyle is another lackluster analyst and overrated coach, but with Dirk/Howard/Terry he's got a nucleus to build around. But the coach isn't a builder, the coach is a convincer.

Can Carlyle convince the Mavs that they're good enough? Can D'antoni convince the Knicks to shut up and play ball? Can Collins convince the Bulls to win instead of self-absorbed floundering? Can Saunders convince the Suns they're better than the Spurs? Can Johnson convince the Pistons they're champions? I'll take AJ and the Pistons over all the rest. We'll see.

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Raiders of the Lost Ark is one of my all time favorite films. It was a singularly unique creation in its day and its held up well, still a fine ride. The sequel was edgy (one of the causes of the PG-13 rating back in the day), tuning most people off with imagery of human sacrifice and child abuse. I dug it, the edgier elements elevated it above the ordinary summer action shlock of the day, you may not have loved it but it wasn't what you thought it was gonna be. The photography was gorgeous, the Rube Goldberg action scenes were inventive and well shot and the plot was engaging. The next sequel was a jolly crowd-pleaser that did nothing interesting at all and as far as I was concerned I didn't need any more Indiana Jones tales. Leave them to the crappy pulp novels and comic book crowd.

So with years of build-up how was the new one? Thumbs down. Its all action scenes. With the digitalization that's taken over the mainstream film scene, these action scenes make the inventive stunts and camerawork of the original films seem all the more long gone. The opening scene defies credulity over and over again beyond all necessity and drags at that. I can dig that they needed to hit the ground running but the atomic bomb test pushes this whole affair into a Cold War realm that the rest of the film just doesn't have the balls to deal with (the ridiculous scene later on of dancing Cossack soldiers in the Amazon jungle should remind us that Stalin at the height of the Cold War didn't have half the logistical powers or a tenth of the budget of Lucas Films). And it's not funny. The overall structure is quickly paced but the individual scenes often bog down in clunky dialogue that hints at more than it explains and isn't funny. It doesn't get any worse than that. Everything is rushed and busy and yet doesn't evolve or amuse.

Bringing back Karen Allen was nice (she still looks pretty good) and might have been sweet. But it just doesn't carry. Frankly Harrison Ford isn't much of an actor and when he's prime action hero mode he doesn't really make much of an effort to give to his co-stars. And since the screenplay doesn't either, Allen is basically a wasted prop (akin to Bergman's Sarabande: he brings back the couple from Scenes from a Marriage then does nothing with them, they didn't need to be there and effectively treating this like a sequel is unnecessary and disappointing). Cate Blanchett's character is a non-starter as well. She's half Suzanna Vega and half Boris-less Natasha, a by-gone stereotype that seems even phonier now than it did back in the day. Jim Broadbent is given absolutely nothing to do and besides collecting a nice paycheck, I don't know why he's even in here. Ray Winstone isn't funny, intriguing or likable and his motives flip and flop to the point that even to the end you can't tell if he's friend or foe. Shia Lebouf just doesn't have it. I've liked him in other things and perhaps this material is too lightweight for him. Here his youthful intensity is overblown and the '50s greaser backdrop can't even be called stylized, you're just supposed to know that chocolate malted plus switchblade equals tough guy.

Main problem: this is a Lucas film not a Spielberg film. Most snooty film snobs automatically recoil at anything Spielberg touches but I'm not of that stripe. He's made some turds and he's made some classics but mostly he's just another filmmaker. (In my own mind I always group him with Tim Burton and Terry Gilliam: don't you think Spielberg has been more consistently good than those two? Be honest) George Lucas, on the other hand, is a hack and he always was. In America if you've got money you're considered a genius. From Bill Gates to Eminem to Rachel Ray to the guy who invented the pet rock, if you've been lucky enough to momentarily touch the zeitgeist and get financially rewarded, you are a 'genius'. That's fine but let's not confuse making money with being smart or even talented. Making money off the American public is 99% luck and 1% perseverance: the work you put it in is to get you in the right place at the right time. You may work your whole life and not hit that point, you may hit it your first day on the job. Making money is a steady discipline, making the ridiculous huge money is luck. You might be smart, you might be talented but if you ain't lucky, it ain't happening! George Lucas, my friends, is more lucky than smart and if you think he's a genius it is for his business acumen, not his artistic abilities. Good for him but I've never been terribly eager to sit through a Lucas film.

Also, can I get just a hint of realism please? I don't expect anyone to survive 3 successive massive waterfalls but I'm willing to look the other way for Indiana Jones. But think back on the one funny moment of the film: Jones swears to Mac that as soon as he's able he's going to break Mac's nose; a few minutes later his hands are freed and he does just as he said he would. It was funny but wouldn't you know, ten minutes later Mac's nose is no longer broken. I know this is comic book entertainment but there's no action if there's no danger. The Indiana Jones of the first film was a real guy with real ingenuity and suffered real bruises; this Indiana Jones is a cartoon character. Oh well. In a summer where Iron Man can avoid all bodily injury simply by affixing a thin layer of titanium to his torso, then perhaps Indiana Jones is a man of his time.

Here's what Metacritic has to say
I think I'm mostly in line with Gregory Christie of Premiere

French Open Quarterfinals

Men's Quarters
Roger Federer v.
Fernando Gonzalez

Gael Monfils v.
David Ferrer

Ernests Gulbis 5 6 5
Novak Djokovic 7 7 7

Nicolas Almegro 1 1 1
Rafael Nadal 6 6 6

Still shaping up like a Federer-Nadal final. Federer has had a tough year, I think he's ready to bust out the whoop-ass on Nadal. Wonder if he can.

Women's Quarters
Dinara Safina v.
Elena Dementieva

Svetlana Kuznetsova v.
Kaia Kanepi

Carla Navarro 3 2
Jelena Jankovic 6 6

Patty Schnyder 3 2
Ana Ivanovic 6 6

No Henin, Williams sisters or Sharapova (damn, up 5-2 in the 2nd and couldn't close it), who are these girls? Safina is in Sharapova's slot to the finals, I guess I'll take her to keep going. I'll go with Ivanovic to face her.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Russell 2000 (May 23-30)






......... 724.10 (5.23.8) ......................748.28 (5.30.8)......
............................-17.07 for the week.......................

This week's economic events

5.26.8-5.30.8

Consumer Confidence May (57.2)
New Home Sales Apr (526K)
Durable Orders Apr (-0.5%)
Chain Deflator-Prel. Q1 (2.6%)
GDP-Prel. Q1 (0.9%)
Initial Claims 05/24 (372K)

Crude Inventories 05/24 (-8883K)
Personal Income Apr (0.2%)
Personal Spending Apr (0.2%)
PCE Core Inflation Apr (0.1%)

Chicago PMI May (49.1)
Mich Sentiment-Rev. May (59.8)

Wilshire 5000, 5.30.8


NIH Grants

You ever wonder who gets National Institute of Health Research Grants? Well now you know.