Thursday, October 30, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Thoughts on football (AFC)
Titans -- I'm believing the hype on the Titans now. I don't think they're going undefeated and I don't think they're better than NYG, but they could be. In a league dominated by injuries building a deep team with strong coaching from the bottom up looks like the way to go. They've got a good running game, a good enough QB (though you'd like to see a little more dazzle down the field, at least a little bit) and a D that hits people hard. I don't think they're a classically great team but I think they've got strength and depth and a game plan that will keep them in it all year long. You know, when they had lean years in Tennessee and they never fired Fisher even though blaming the coach is always the first move, I always thought they were making the right move. He's a good coach and while this isn't his best team it may be the one that can win.
Steelers, Bills -- Both have good QB play, pretty good running games but rickety O-lines. Big Ben gets hit too much and while Edwards hasn't morphed into Drew Bledsoe (the way QBs in Buffalo seem to do), he'd do better with a little more breathing room in the pocket. Both have good D's and good special teams and are efficient enough on offense and on the road to keep winning games. I like them both to make the playoffs.
Jags, Broncos -- These two are capable of fine ball but they're also real capable of mailing it in. The Broncos have no D at all and the Jags just can't seem to get over the hump of thinking all the way through a game. They're both still on track for the post-season and both can still become fine teams, but at the moment they seem like stragglers.
Pats -- Wild card. Not sure how far they can get w/out Brady but they're still a pretty good team with a pretty good coach. If they can stay disciplined and (of course) avoid more injuries, they can still be dangerous in the playoffs.
Colts, Ravens, Chargers -- 3 old timey powers still hanging around. But none are really inspiring any confidence. The Colts can still ring up the scoreboard--you know they can--but they just don't look sturdy enough to bang with anyone any more. They've got enough class to win but not really the strength. I give them decent odds to make the playoffs but they don't go far. The Ravens are back to their superb defense but the offense just looks stagnant. I don't see where the points come from on that team. The Chargers are flounderers, they've been doing that for a while now. There's still time to right the ship and they are in a crappy division so they can get back in it. But somehow they look like a broken toy to me.
Browns, NYJ, Texans, Dolphins -- Mediocrities. The Browns were everybody's darling but I wasn't sold. Their schedule was brutal and it shows now. They gutted a nice win over NYG and they could do that again, but they just don't seem to have any direction right now. I just don't see how they get on a roll. NYJ is not the place for Favre and vice versa. He'll win some games, put up some highlights, maybe even hang around the playoff hunt. But I just don't see this experiment working and I think they flail for the rest of the year. The Texans are like a construction project that moves at a snail's pace: you can tell they're getting better but they don't seem any closer to complete. The complaint that they're in a tough conference just doesn't wash any more, they should have one of the easier schedules in the league, I'd think. And still they seem like the little engine that does every once in a while. The Dolphins are the team that will gladly play spoiler down the stretch. They won't win a lot of games but you'll remember the ones they do.
Raiders, Bengals, Chiefs -- I hesitate to put the Raiders this low because I think they've got a shot at getting better. I'm not counting on it because flashy mediocrity works pretty well in Oaktown these days. Bengals just look hopeless. They're talent poor, the front office is the least active in the league and the coaching staff doesn't seem in control, bad combo. The Chiefs are just, wow, they're getting like Detroit Lions bad.
Steelers, Bills -- Both have good QB play, pretty good running games but rickety O-lines. Big Ben gets hit too much and while Edwards hasn't morphed into Drew Bledsoe (the way QBs in Buffalo seem to do), he'd do better with a little more breathing room in the pocket. Both have good D's and good special teams and are efficient enough on offense and on the road to keep winning games. I like them both to make the playoffs.
Jags, Broncos -- These two are capable of fine ball but they're also real capable of mailing it in. The Broncos have no D at all and the Jags just can't seem to get over the hump of thinking all the way through a game. They're both still on track for the post-season and both can still become fine teams, but at the moment they seem like stragglers.
Pats -- Wild card. Not sure how far they can get w/out Brady but they're still a pretty good team with a pretty good coach. If they can stay disciplined and (of course) avoid more injuries, they can still be dangerous in the playoffs.
Colts, Ravens, Chargers -- 3 old timey powers still hanging around. But none are really inspiring any confidence. The Colts can still ring up the scoreboard--you know they can--but they just don't look sturdy enough to bang with anyone any more. They've got enough class to win but not really the strength. I give them decent odds to make the playoffs but they don't go far. The Ravens are back to their superb defense but the offense just looks stagnant. I don't see where the points come from on that team. The Chargers are flounderers, they've been doing that for a while now. There's still time to right the ship and they are in a crappy division so they can get back in it. But somehow they look like a broken toy to me.
Browns, NYJ, Texans, Dolphins -- Mediocrities. The Browns were everybody's darling but I wasn't sold. Their schedule was brutal and it shows now. They gutted a nice win over NYG and they could do that again, but they just don't seem to have any direction right now. I just don't see how they get on a roll. NYJ is not the place for Favre and vice versa. He'll win some games, put up some highlights, maybe even hang around the playoff hunt. But I just don't see this experiment working and I think they flail for the rest of the year. The Texans are like a construction project that moves at a snail's pace: you can tell they're getting better but they don't seem any closer to complete. The complaint that they're in a tough conference just doesn't wash any more, they should have one of the easier schedules in the league, I'd think. And still they seem like the little engine that does every once in a while. The Dolphins are the team that will gladly play spoiler down the stretch. They won't win a lot of games but you'll remember the ones they do.
Raiders, Bengals, Chiefs -- I hesitate to put the Raiders this low because I think they've got a shot at getting better. I'm not counting on it because flashy mediocrity works pretty well in Oaktown these days. Bengals just look hopeless. They're talent poor, the front office is the least active in the league and the coaching staff doesn't seem in control, bad combo. The Chiefs are just, wow, they're getting like Detroit Lions bad.
Thoughts on football (NFC)
NYG -- I'm buying the hype. Going into Pittsburgh, putting a lot of pressure on Big Ben and finding a way at the end is pretty impressive. Steelers-Cowboys was my pre-season SB pick and NYG has now won at both of them--and Tampa and Green Bay besides. The pass rush is top notch, Eli is settling in as comfortable leader rather than tap dancing deer in the headlights, the running game is ferocious and you would expect a Coughlin squad to possess fine special teams (I can't say as I've really noticed, letting my preconceptions run loose). Today's NFL is all about injuries and as long as NYG stays healthy, I think they're gonna win 14 games and cruise into the playoffs. It's early, but that's the shape for now.
Redskins, Panthers, Eagles -- They all seem like fine teams, good firepower, stern defenses, with stars on both sides of the ball. That's nice. I'm not sure which one seems like the candidate to emerge to challenge NYG. I like what the Redskins are getting out of Campbell and Portis and they're getting strong LB play on the other side. I like that but I wonder if that's enough to stop a really dynamic offense or burrow through a strong pass rush. The Panthers, too, seem good enough to be called good, but I'm not sure they're good enough to best NYG. When the Eagles are in sync they may be the best in the game, but they don't get in sync often enough to bank on. Again, whichever one can stay healthy can win. I'm thinking McNabb and Westbrook are most likely to get tagged (though my fantasy team would be devastated if anything happened to either of them), so I'd put them 3rd out of these 3.
Cowboys -- The ultimate wild card. When healthy they've looked pretty good, but they've endured some Texas-size turmoil lately that has crippled them badly in the getting it done department. Who knows what happens? They'll be playing desperate at the end of the year which may whisk them to the Final or spin them out of control. I have no clue how salary structures and contracts work in football, but I reckon Jerry Jones can blow up a team with a quickness when need be. The Cowboys may look totally different next year.
Bucs, Packers, Bears, Falcons, Cards -- These seem like the teams that might sneak into the playoffs at the end. I like the Bucs, good running game, got that fearsome D back at work. But still too pedestrian to imagine winning the conference final. The Packers have looked really good at times but they seem like flailers at the moment, I give Dallas a much better chance now than the Packers. Bears are better w/out Rex--who's surprised? The D is nice but not so tough as the glory days, the running game is coming along, if they could move the ball they could hang around. But how consistent are they gonna be? The Falcons lucked out with Matt Ryan, that guy is really impressive. His footwork is professional grade, his shoulders are always squared forward, he's got a great eye, reads D well--he's a badass right off the bat. Best rookie QB since Marino? They're flashy and interesting but I suspect by the end of the year they'll be in the middle, which is way better than they probably hoped for. The Cards, yeah, well, they're good enough to hang around and their division is pretty soft so I guess they've got a good shot at the post-season but I'm just not into them really. Everything about them seems more likely to fall apart than fall in place, so their chances of doing any real damage seem meager.
Saints, Vikings, Rams -- These are the 3 that should be better. And you never know there's still time for them. The Saints should have the best offense ever all the time instead of just every once in a while. And the D is pretty raggedy. They'll give great highlights but I'm not sure about W's. The Vikings were everybody's darling but they've just got no 'zazz. They've got a 1 dimensional offense and a soft D, they're just not built to win so why did we all think they would? The Rams just didn't want to play for Linehan, back in the 'Nam they would've fragged him left him for dead. In the NFL they just complain to their agents long enough and the guy gets a gajillion-dollar buyout. (I'm telling ya: peace is better than war) The Rams all of the sudden look like a team that can win games and this is a fragile conference. I'd love to see the Rams hang around and make some noise but I'm not really betting on it.
Seahawks, Niners -- Disappointing efforts really. The Seahawks made the SB a coupla years back because of the best offensive line in the game. Then each lineman got poached and since the Seahawks have just plain sucked. They ran Shaun Alexander into retirement, even Jerry Rice couldn't catch the ball up there and they've got a lame duck coach with no plan for the future. These guys could suck for a long, long time. The Niners rolled the dice on Nolan and Smith and didn't come up winners. But I thought getting rid of Nolan was premature. I liked Nolan and they did make improvements here and there, I thought he had them on the right track. I like Singletary too but bringing him under a cloud seems weird to me. When did the NFL ever fire a guy this early in the season--we've already got 3 axed. I don't understand the shift.
Lions -- Oh no, these guys just suck. They've never been good and they have no plan to get good, they just hang around year after year-- like Ford and General Motors. Unfortunately the Lions are not poised to be liquidated any time soon.
Redskins, Panthers, Eagles -- They all seem like fine teams, good firepower, stern defenses, with stars on both sides of the ball. That's nice. I'm not sure which one seems like the candidate to emerge to challenge NYG. I like what the Redskins are getting out of Campbell and Portis and they're getting strong LB play on the other side. I like that but I wonder if that's enough to stop a really dynamic offense or burrow through a strong pass rush. The Panthers, too, seem good enough to be called good, but I'm not sure they're good enough to best NYG. When the Eagles are in sync they may be the best in the game, but they don't get in sync often enough to bank on. Again, whichever one can stay healthy can win. I'm thinking McNabb and Westbrook are most likely to get tagged (though my fantasy team would be devastated if anything happened to either of them), so I'd put them 3rd out of these 3.
Cowboys -- The ultimate wild card. When healthy they've looked pretty good, but they've endured some Texas-size turmoil lately that has crippled them badly in the getting it done department. Who knows what happens? They'll be playing desperate at the end of the year which may whisk them to the Final or spin them out of control. I have no clue how salary structures and contracts work in football, but I reckon Jerry Jones can blow up a team with a quickness when need be. The Cowboys may look totally different next year.
Bucs, Packers, Bears, Falcons, Cards -- These seem like the teams that might sneak into the playoffs at the end. I like the Bucs, good running game, got that fearsome D back at work. But still too pedestrian to imagine winning the conference final. The Packers have looked really good at times but they seem like flailers at the moment, I give Dallas a much better chance now than the Packers. Bears are better w/out Rex--who's surprised? The D is nice but not so tough as the glory days, the running game is coming along, if they could move the ball they could hang around. But how consistent are they gonna be? The Falcons lucked out with Matt Ryan, that guy is really impressive. His footwork is professional grade, his shoulders are always squared forward, he's got a great eye, reads D well--he's a badass right off the bat. Best rookie QB since Marino? They're flashy and interesting but I suspect by the end of the year they'll be in the middle, which is way better than they probably hoped for. The Cards, yeah, well, they're good enough to hang around and their division is pretty soft so I guess they've got a good shot at the post-season but I'm just not into them really. Everything about them seems more likely to fall apart than fall in place, so their chances of doing any real damage seem meager.
Saints, Vikings, Rams -- These are the 3 that should be better. And you never know there's still time for them. The Saints should have the best offense ever all the time instead of just every once in a while. And the D is pretty raggedy. They'll give great highlights but I'm not sure about W's. The Vikings were everybody's darling but they've just got no 'zazz. They've got a 1 dimensional offense and a soft D, they're just not built to win so why did we all think they would? The Rams just didn't want to play for Linehan, back in the 'Nam they would've fragged him left him for dead. In the NFL they just complain to their agents long enough and the guy gets a gajillion-dollar buyout. (I'm telling ya: peace is better than war) The Rams all of the sudden look like a team that can win games and this is a fragile conference. I'd love to see the Rams hang around and make some noise but I'm not really betting on it.
Seahawks, Niners -- Disappointing efforts really. The Seahawks made the SB a coupla years back because of the best offensive line in the game. Then each lineman got poached and since the Seahawks have just plain sucked. They ran Shaun Alexander into retirement, even Jerry Rice couldn't catch the ball up there and they've got a lame duck coach with no plan for the future. These guys could suck for a long, long time. The Niners rolled the dice on Nolan and Smith and didn't come up winners. But I thought getting rid of Nolan was premature. I liked Nolan and they did make improvements here and there, I thought he had them on the right track. I like Singletary too but bringing him under a cloud seems weird to me. When did the NFL ever fire a guy this early in the season--we've already got 3 axed. I don't understand the shift.
Lions -- Oh no, these guys just suck. They've never been good and they have no plan to get good, they just hang around year after year-- like Ford and General Motors. Unfortunately the Lions are not poised to be liquidated any time soon.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Russell 2000 (Oct 17-24)
......... 471.12 (10.24.8) ...................... 526.43 (10.17.8)....
..............................-55.31 for the week.....................……..
..............................-55.31 for the week.....................……..
Sunday, October 26, 2008
This week's economic events
Oct 20-24
Leading Indicators Sep (0.3%)
Crude Inventories 10/18 (3182K)
Initial Claims 10/18 (478K)
Existing Home Sales Sep (5.18M)
Leading Indicators Sep (0.3%)
Crude Inventories 10/18 (3182K)
Initial Claims 10/18 (478K)
Existing Home Sales Sep (5.18M)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
World Series Prediction
The Rays have stood up to every single challenge so far. But this is the finals, its all brand new from here on out and this team is so different from every other Rays teams that there is just no telling what they've got left in 'em. They fucked around in game 5 against the Red Sox and the malaise set in, but they recovered nicely in game 7. Hey you can't let guys let Varitek and Ortiz get another shot, but in the end they were still slumping and the Rays endured. Last year, the Rockies got hot at the right time and went all the way through the NL playoffs only to turn back into a pumpkin at midnight; the Rays have played well all year long and there's a lot of strong talent that looks poised to compete in the rugged AL East for years to come. The Rays are not a fluke. But in a sense besting the White Sox and Red Sox may bring on a letdown, the World Series may seem anti-climatic now. I think they're good but I think the Phillies are better.
The Phillies rolled through the Dodgers because as much as everyone thought the Dodgers were the hot team, the sexy team, they frankly weren't a very good team. They were easily the 8th best team to make the playoffs and lucked out in drawing the hapless Cubs in the 1st round. The Dodgers vastly overacheived and the Phillies are left perhaps untested. But I like that lineup and that pitching. I think the Phillies were the best team in the NL (well, the Cubs were but they're allergic to success), and I liked them to win it all. They play good D, they play station-to-station style baseball with a healthy dose of power, and the bullpen has been effective.
As much as the talk radio crowd thinks this will be a ratings disaster, I think this will be a fine competitive series. And what do I give a shit about ratings anyway? I want to see a good Series and I think this may be the best since Yankees-D'backs.
Phillies in 7 (2, 3, 5, 7)
The Phillies rolled through the Dodgers because as much as everyone thought the Dodgers were the hot team, the sexy team, they frankly weren't a very good team. They were easily the 8th best team to make the playoffs and lucked out in drawing the hapless Cubs in the 1st round. The Dodgers vastly overacheived and the Phillies are left perhaps untested. But I like that lineup and that pitching. I think the Phillies were the best team in the NL (well, the Cubs were but they're allergic to success), and I liked them to win it all. They play good D, they play station-to-station style baseball with a healthy dose of power, and the bullpen has been effective.
As much as the talk radio crowd thinks this will be a ratings disaster, I think this will be a fine competitive series. And what do I give a shit about ratings anyway? I want to see a good Series and I think this may be the best since Yankees-D'backs.
Phillies in 7 (2, 3, 5, 7)
Sunday, October 19, 2008
This week's economic events
Oct 13-17
Treasury Budget Sep ($45.7B)
Retail Sales Sep (-1.2%)
Retail Sales ex-auto Sep (-0.6%)
PPI Sep (-0.4%)
Core PPI Sep (0.4%)
NY Empire State Index Oct (-24.6)
Business Inventories Aug (0.3%)
Fed's Beige Book
Core CPI Sep (0.1%)
CPI Sep (0.0%)
Initial Claims 10/11 (461K)
Net Foreign Purchases Aug ($14.0B)
Capacity Utilization Sep (76.4%)
Industrial Production Sep (-2.8%)
Philadelphia Fed Oct (-37.5)
Crude Inventories 10/11 (5611K)
Building Permits Sep (786K)
Housing Starts Sep (817K)
Mich Sentiment-Prel. Oct (57.5)
Treasury Budget Sep ($45.7B)
Retail Sales Sep (-1.2%)
Retail Sales ex-auto Sep (-0.6%)
PPI Sep (-0.4%)
Core PPI Sep (0.4%)
NY Empire State Index Oct (-24.6)
Business Inventories Aug (0.3%)
Fed's Beige Book
Core CPI Sep (0.1%)
CPI Sep (0.0%)
Initial Claims 10/11 (461K)
Net Foreign Purchases Aug ($14.0B)
Capacity Utilization Sep (76.4%)
Industrial Production Sep (-2.8%)
Philadelphia Fed Oct (-37.5)
Crude Inventories 10/11 (5611K)
Building Permits Sep (786K)
Housing Starts Sep (817K)
Mich Sentiment-Prel. Oct (57.5)
Friday, October 17, 2008
USA World Cup qualifiers
USA 6-1 Cuba
Trinidad 2-1 USA
USA needed only one more win to qualify for the next level of World Cup qualification and they came out full throttle against the Cubans at RFK Stadium. Demarcus Beasley is a guy that occasionally shows great veteran leadership and other times he disappears completely in much-too-conservative play. Fortunately he was the former in this contest, finishing 2 sweet goals in the first half. Cuba did manage to get one back with a (lucky) toe-poke that clipped the underside of the crossbar. But the 2nd half was an American throttling.
Cuba is frankly not a very good squad. This does not bode well for the two players that defected during this trip in hopes of getting signed in the MLS. Hey, we take Cuban baseball players all the time, if these guys had 95MPH fastballs or 40-40 type skills, they'd have no problem catching on here. But sizzling mid-field play isn't exactly what Americans crave and political baggage isn't the kind of selling point the MLS is looking for. And, if the rest of the squad is any indication, these guys might not be good enough to play anyway. Yipes! Well, the upside is Janet Reno is long gone.
In the second match USA had the luxury of experimenting with lineups. I still don't understand why Freddy Adu and Jozey Altidore haven't been given the keys to the car yet. They are clearly the future and combining them with Donovan in the middle would make them the best bet for the present as well. Adu's diminutive size is a bit scary: he does get marked out of games but when he gets to the ball he's the best player on the field. And, frankly, Altidore is the finest finisher I've ever seen in an American uniform--no excuses for him to not be playing every minute of every game. I suspect by summer of '10, they'll both be firmly entrenched--I hope so anyway.
I didn't think Trinidad was any more talented than USA but they brought an intensity that USA couldn't match. And the refs blew two off-side calls foiling USA's best scoring chances, which didn't help. It was a disconcerting performance but USA didn't bring their A-team and it was an experimental opportunity so I'm willing to chalk this one up to the fact that Trinidad needed this one more than we did.
Trinidad 2-1 USA
USA needed only one more win to qualify for the next level of World Cup qualification and they came out full throttle against the Cubans at RFK Stadium. Demarcus Beasley is a guy that occasionally shows great veteran leadership and other times he disappears completely in much-too-conservative play. Fortunately he was the former in this contest, finishing 2 sweet goals in the first half. Cuba did manage to get one back with a (lucky) toe-poke that clipped the underside of the crossbar. But the 2nd half was an American throttling.
Cuba is frankly not a very good squad. This does not bode well for the two players that defected during this trip in hopes of getting signed in the MLS. Hey, we take Cuban baseball players all the time, if these guys had 95MPH fastballs or 40-40 type skills, they'd have no problem catching on here. But sizzling mid-field play isn't exactly what Americans crave and political baggage isn't the kind of selling point the MLS is looking for. And, if the rest of the squad is any indication, these guys might not be good enough to play anyway. Yipes! Well, the upside is Janet Reno is long gone.
In the second match USA had the luxury of experimenting with lineups. I still don't understand why Freddy Adu and Jozey Altidore haven't been given the keys to the car yet. They are clearly the future and combining them with Donovan in the middle would make them the best bet for the present as well. Adu's diminutive size is a bit scary: he does get marked out of games but when he gets to the ball he's the best player on the field. And, frankly, Altidore is the finest finisher I've ever seen in an American uniform--no excuses for him to not be playing every minute of every game. I suspect by summer of '10, they'll both be firmly entrenched--I hope so anyway.
I didn't think Trinidad was any more talented than USA but they brought an intensity that USA couldn't match. And the refs blew two off-side calls foiling USA's best scoring chances, which didn't help. It was a disconcerting performance but USA didn't bring their A-team and it was an experimental opportunity so I'm willing to chalk this one up to the fact that Trinidad needed this one more than we did.
46th NYFF
The New York Film Festival doesn't lay out what you should love in the form of obsequious awards like most fawning festivals do. That's okay, awards are for suckers and the NYFF is more about pummeling the locals with a lot of good foreign cinema. Good for them. Considering I live in podunk America, I'll probably never get the chance to see any of these on the big screen, so this is basically just going to my Netflix pile. *Sigh* I used to love going to the movies. I still do, I just wish I got see movies while I did it.
But here are two articles, one a preview from the Village Voice's J. Hoberman, the other a recap from Filmcritic.com's Chris Cabin. Hoberman was one of the organizers of the event (and the author of a marvelous rumination on American cinema between Eisenhower and Reagan called The Dream Life--big big thumbs up!), so we should assume he saw all of the films. Cabin is, I believe, writing about every film he saw--only 1 negative review in there indicates a strong crop at this year's fest. The overlapping faves are probably the ones to watch. I look forward to catching all of these films…eventually.
J. Hoberman's Picks: I'm Gonna Explode, Afterschool, Chouga, Bullet in the Head Tony Manero, The Class, Gomorrah, Che, Hunger, Tulpan, Happy-Go-Lucky, The Wrestler, 24 City, Four Nights With Anna, The Headless Woman
Chris Cabin's Picks: Waltz with Bashir, Tony Manero, Hunger, The Wrestler , The Headless Woman, Happy Go Lucky, Ashes of Time Redux, Gomorrah, Four Nights with Anna, Changeling, Afterschool, Tulpan, Let It Rain, A Christmas Tale, Hunger The Class, Summer Hours, Night and Day, 24 City, Tokyo Sonata, Wendy and Lucy
But here are two articles, one a preview from the Village Voice's J. Hoberman, the other a recap from Filmcritic.com's Chris Cabin. Hoberman was one of the organizers of the event (and the author of a marvelous rumination on American cinema between Eisenhower and Reagan called The Dream Life--big big thumbs up!), so we should assume he saw all of the films. Cabin is, I believe, writing about every film he saw--only 1 negative review in there indicates a strong crop at this year's fest. The overlapping faves are probably the ones to watch. I look forward to catching all of these films…eventually.
J. Hoberman's Picks: I'm Gonna Explode, Afterschool, Chouga, Bullet in the Head Tony Manero, The Class, Gomorrah, Che, Hunger, Tulpan, Happy-Go-Lucky, The Wrestler, 24 City, Four Nights With Anna, The Headless Woman
Chris Cabin's Picks: Waltz with Bashir, Tony Manero, Hunger, The Wrestler , The Headless Woman, Happy Go Lucky, Ashes of Time Redux, Gomorrah, Four Nights with Anna, Changeling, Afterschool, Tulpan, Let It Rain, A Christmas Tale, Hunger The Class, Summer Hours, Night and Day, 24 City, Tokyo Sonata, Wendy and Lucy
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Monday, October 13, 2008
The worldwide meltdown
Now that we know that October 9, 2007 was the highpoint of the global economy, can we assume that October 10, 2008 was the lowpoint of the global economy?Sounds good, don't it?
Consider this about today's massive upswing: there were no economic events or major earnings reports today. Wednesday and Thursday, however, will bring in a boatload of news. Will it be good news? And will anyone care?
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Russell 2000 (Oct 3-10)
......... 522.46 (10.10.8) ...................... 619.40 (10.3.8)......
............................-96.94 for the week.......................
This week's economic events
10.6.8 -- 10.10.8
FOMC Minutes Sep 16
Consumer Credit Aug (-$7.9B)
Pending Home Sales Aug (7.4%)
Crude Inventories 10/04 (8123K)
Initial Claims 10/04 (478K)
Wholesale Inventories Aug (0.8%)
Export Prices ex-ag. Sep (-1.0%)
Import Prices ex-oil Sep (-0.9%)
Trade Balance Aug (-$59.1B)
FOMC Minutes Sep 16
Consumer Credit Aug (-$7.9B)
Pending Home Sales Aug (7.4%)
Crude Inventories 10/04 (8123K)
Initial Claims 10/04 (478K)
Wholesale Inventories Aug (0.8%)
Export Prices ex-ag. Sep (-1.0%)
Import Prices ex-oil Sep (-0.9%)
Trade Balance Aug (-$59.1B)
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
'Like a team in the heat of a pennant drive…'
Dodgers-Phillies
The Phillies are playing really good right now, they're in one of those grooves that looks like it'll get them past the Dodgers. The Dodgers are similarly grooving but all year long--with and without Manny--they were streaky, following a good week with a poor one. The way the Cubs laid down may be giving LA a false sense of confidence, I don't think the Phillies will allow themselves to get out that way. Sure the Brewers were out of gas by the time they got to Philly but they were scrappy and played hard and got lucky, they were formidable opponents that the Phillies easily dispatched. If the Phillies can get to Lowe and put the kibosh on Manny then I think they are the superior team on both sides of the ball. Watch out for Manny and Lowe (incidentally, Manny & Lo was a pretty good flick back in the day, young Scarlett Johanson, rent it, its good). I'll take the Phillies in (1, 2, 5 &) 6.
Red Sox-Rays
I'm rooting for the Rays, I'm gonna be honest. Since this team's 1st day in existence they've been poorly run, poorly constructed and just a complete disaster. But somehow they pulled it together and over night turned into a formidable opponent in the AL East. I like that. The ESPN crowd probably wants Red Sox-Dodgers but I'm going the opposite way. I like the Rays to ride the Cinderella season all the way to the World Series. They handled the Yanks and Sox like equals this year and I like them to catch a little of that Red Sox confidence and win the pennant. The Red Sox may be the best but I just feel like they're been around long enough and the Rays have a good shot at slipping past them. This might be the last hurrah for the Red Sox, which would be fine with me, I think I liked them better when they were ulcer-inducing washouts. It might be interesting if the Red Sox could dominate the 21st the way the Yankees dominated the 20th, but I suspect the Yankees will dominate the next century too. I'll take the Rays in (1, 4, 6 &) 7.
The Phillies are playing really good right now, they're in one of those grooves that looks like it'll get them past the Dodgers. The Dodgers are similarly grooving but all year long--with and without Manny--they were streaky, following a good week with a poor one. The way the Cubs laid down may be giving LA a false sense of confidence, I don't think the Phillies will allow themselves to get out that way. Sure the Brewers were out of gas by the time they got to Philly but they were scrappy and played hard and got lucky, they were formidable opponents that the Phillies easily dispatched. If the Phillies can get to Lowe and put the kibosh on Manny then I think they are the superior team on both sides of the ball. Watch out for Manny and Lowe (incidentally, Manny & Lo was a pretty good flick back in the day, young Scarlett Johanson, rent it, its good). I'll take the Phillies in (1, 2, 5 &) 6.
Red Sox-Rays
I'm rooting for the Rays, I'm gonna be honest. Since this team's 1st day in existence they've been poorly run, poorly constructed and just a complete disaster. But somehow they pulled it together and over night turned into a formidable opponent in the AL East. I like that. The ESPN crowd probably wants Red Sox-Dodgers but I'm going the opposite way. I like the Rays to ride the Cinderella season all the way to the World Series. They handled the Yanks and Sox like equals this year and I like them to catch a little of that Red Sox confidence and win the pennant. The Red Sox may be the best but I just feel like they're been around long enough and the Rays have a good shot at slipping past them. This might be the last hurrah for the Red Sox, which would be fine with me, I think I liked them better when they were ulcer-inducing washouts. It might be interesting if the Red Sox could dominate the 21st the way the Yankees dominated the 20th, but I suspect the Yankees will dominate the next century too. I'll take the Rays in (1, 4, 6 &) 7.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Check this out
Economist.com on the mortgage crisis of the 1870s
"(T)he contraction that followed as being more severe and causing more social unrest than the Great Depression. He even believes the financial hardship that followed is what spawned a wave of American religious fundamentalism. The 1873 crisis also provided ample financial opportunities for the few with cash. The robber barons of the day—the Rockefellers and Carnegies—bought under-valued assets in the depressed market. As markets recovered, inequality grew and gave rise to the subsequent gilded age in America."
The upside is that whereas this is where America began to supplant Europe economically because of our superior wheat production costs, China is not currently poised to dispose so easily of the Americans. Mainly this is because our trade with China is so beneficial to us that it actually enhances our economic position vis-Ã -vis China. The downside is now is a historically unfortunate time for another 'Great Awakening' (yeah, I know, there's no 'good time' for it but now seems worse than usual). And as for the inequality that will arise from this, we've already seen it: dude, Warren Buffet is where companies go to get their capital now. Fortunately, Buffet is a much much cooler guy than Rockefeller, Morgan, Vanderbilt, etc. But, just like then, the government now is going to work in favor of whales like Buffet, whether they tell us that or not.
The real danger is that as the capitalist world rides this crisis out--oh yeah, we've got a coupla years of crisis ahead!--the dictators and oil-rich autocrats are free to tyrannize for the foreseeable future. Could Putin's Russia (oh, I mean Medvedev's Russia) and the Ayatollah's Iran perch themselves at the center of a non-aligned movement? They could but I suspect that once you get beyond those two the power is pretty slim.
The foreign policy agenda for the next president of the United States is clear.
"(T)he contraction that followed as being more severe and causing more social unrest than the Great Depression. He even believes the financial hardship that followed is what spawned a wave of American religious fundamentalism. The 1873 crisis also provided ample financial opportunities for the few with cash. The robber barons of the day—the Rockefellers and Carnegies—bought under-valued assets in the depressed market. As markets recovered, inequality grew and gave rise to the subsequent gilded age in America."
The upside is that whereas this is where America began to supplant Europe economically because of our superior wheat production costs, China is not currently poised to dispose so easily of the Americans. Mainly this is because our trade with China is so beneficial to us that it actually enhances our economic position vis-Ã -vis China. The downside is now is a historically unfortunate time for another 'Great Awakening' (yeah, I know, there's no 'good time' for it but now seems worse than usual). And as for the inequality that will arise from this, we've already seen it: dude, Warren Buffet is where companies go to get their capital now. Fortunately, Buffet is a much much cooler guy than Rockefeller, Morgan, Vanderbilt, etc. But, just like then, the government now is going to work in favor of whales like Buffet, whether they tell us that or not.
The real danger is that as the capitalist world rides this crisis out--oh yeah, we've got a coupla years of crisis ahead!--the dictators and oil-rich autocrats are free to tyrannize for the foreseeable future. Could Putin's Russia (oh, I mean Medvedev's Russia) and the Ayatollah's Iran perch themselves at the center of a non-aligned movement? They could but I suspect that once you get beyond those two the power is pretty slim.
The foreign policy agenda for the next president of the United States is clear.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Russell 2000 (Sep 26-Oct 3)
......... 704.79 (9.26.8) ...................... 619.40 (10.3.8)......
............................-85.39 for the week.......................
This week's economic events
Sep 29-Oct 3
Personal Income Aug (0.5%)
Personal Spending Aug (0.0%)
Chicago PMI Sep (56.7)
Consumer Confidence Sep (59.8)
Auto Sales Sep (4.3M)
Truck Sales Sep (5.2M)
ADP Employment Sep (-8K)
Construction Spending Aug (0.0%)
ISM Index Sep (43.5)
Crude Inventories 09/27 (4278K)
Initial Claims 09/27 (497K)
Factory Orders Aug (-4.0%)
Average Workweek Sep (33.6)
Hourly Earnings Sep (0.2%)
Nonfarm Payrolls Sep (-159K)
Unemployment Rate Sep (6.1%)
ISM Services Sep (50.2)
Personal Income Aug (0.5%)
Personal Spending Aug (0.0%)
Chicago PMI Sep (56.7)
Consumer Confidence Sep (59.8)
Auto Sales Sep (4.3M)
Truck Sales Sep (5.2M)
ADP Employment Sep (-8K)
Construction Spending Aug (0.0%)
ISM Index Sep (43.5)
Crude Inventories 09/27 (4278K)
Initial Claims 09/27 (497K)
Factory Orders Aug (-4.0%)
Average Workweek Sep (33.6)
Hourly Earnings Sep (0.2%)
Nonfarm Payrolls Sep (-159K)
Unemployment Rate Sep (6.1%)
ISM Services Sep (50.2)
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Playoffs after two games
Dodgers 2-0 Cubs
You know I think the Cubs still have a good shot of getting past the Dodgers. Yeah, they got pants-ed in back to back games at Wrigley--that's because the home fans are total bringdowns! The Cubs will rebound in LA, they'll relax and their superior pitching and hitting will finally shine through. I say the Cubs take games 3 & 4 in LA and then we'll see what that 'curse' is made of back in Wrigley in game 5. (Even though I like the Cubs to stage a brave comeback, I think I'm leaning toward the Dodgers rolling in game 5. We'll see. I picked the Cubs to begin with and I'm sticking by 'em.)
Brewers 0-2 Phillies
Unless the Brewers get Sabathia to pitch games 3, 4 & 5 (which I assure you they're considering as I write this!), they've got no shot at all. I give them a puncher's chance in game 3, but I don't see this series going back to Philly.
Red Sox 2-0 Angels
I'm disappointed in the Angels. They're hitting well, they're just not finishing. And they're pitching well but getting snakebit. The Red Sox have that mojo right now and it wasn't that long ago when the suggestion of the Red Sox having any mojo of any kind would've gotten you laughed out of the room. I don't like the Angels chances of winning 2 games (or even 1) at Fenway. Red Sox are rolling.
White Sox 0-2 Rays
The Rays look young and hungry while the White Sox look old and slow. The White Sox aren't finished, they can still rake and I think they've got a decent shot at sending this back to Tampa. But I definitely like the Rays to win 1 of the next 3 contests.
Ahhh, I love playoff baseball. I'd like it better if the Indians were still around but this is still good stuff.
You know I think the Cubs still have a good shot of getting past the Dodgers. Yeah, they got pants-ed in back to back games at Wrigley--that's because the home fans are total bringdowns! The Cubs will rebound in LA, they'll relax and their superior pitching and hitting will finally shine through. I say the Cubs take games 3 & 4 in LA and then we'll see what that 'curse' is made of back in Wrigley in game 5. (Even though I like the Cubs to stage a brave comeback, I think I'm leaning toward the Dodgers rolling in game 5. We'll see. I picked the Cubs to begin with and I'm sticking by 'em.)
Brewers 0-2 Phillies
Unless the Brewers get Sabathia to pitch games 3, 4 & 5 (which I assure you they're considering as I write this!), they've got no shot at all. I give them a puncher's chance in game 3, but I don't see this series going back to Philly.
Red Sox 2-0 Angels
I'm disappointed in the Angels. They're hitting well, they're just not finishing. And they're pitching well but getting snakebit. The Red Sox have that mojo right now and it wasn't that long ago when the suggestion of the Red Sox having any mojo of any kind would've gotten you laughed out of the room. I don't like the Angels chances of winning 2 games (or even 1) at Fenway. Red Sox are rolling.
White Sox 0-2 Rays
The Rays look young and hungry while the White Sox look old and slow. The White Sox aren't finished, they can still rake and I think they've got a decent shot at sending this back to Tampa. But I definitely like the Rays to win 1 of the next 3 contests.
Ahhh, I love playoff baseball. I'd like it better if the Indians were still around but this is still good stuff.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Taleb & Teller
I love Nassim Nicholas Taleb, he's my boy. He made a gajillion dollars in the market and retired to hang out in his library and write books of skeptical contrarianism. He is living my dream and how can I not respect the hell out of that? And he's a genuinely engaging writer. The Black Swan is more than just a snooty math text (although it is a bit of that). It employs some interesting techniques like fictional characters (in an homage to Kundera) and anecdotes where political events mirror market events to keep the story from turning dreary. It's a very readable book. When I got a chance to see him live up in Louisville, I took the morning off and headed up there.
As a public speaker he is clumsy, even after all his time giving the same power point lecture, he's smart but not terribly charismatic. Even his attempts at humor fell flat: jabs at Frenchmen probably work just about everywhere in America but his Levantine sensibility has a depth that just doesn't translate to Louisville, Kentucky. He reminds me of Philip K. Dick in that sense: fascinating ideas ineffectually presented.
During the Q&A period, a woman got up and in a pleading voice asked him to guide us. She wondered how we were to take this skepticism and turn it into a bold idea--we were at the Idea Festival, after all. Of course he had no worthwhile reply (some blather about teaching history without theory attached to it, which is quite a bit less possible than it sounds). I wondered whether she felt vindicated for sticking the stuffed shirt or bewildered at how this obviously capable thinker could fail to formulate a plan. I suspect it was the latter which will eventually morph into the former because go-getters like her just cannot comprehend that intellectual avenues are dead ends--even the useful ones! All of them without exception from thermodynamics to nutrition to economics to religion, where did they go? You get innovation and then confusion, then you hope for more innovation. But philosophy is a bitch goddess: for nuclear power you get nuclear weaponry; for technology driven capitalism that gives the economy an enormous boost comes credit default swaps that can rare up and snatch all the gains back in one big gulp; for Ruth, Mays and Aaron you get McGwire, Sosa and Bonds; for Shrodinger's cat you get that same cat's corpse. Bitch goddess, whadda ya gonna do?
We often hear wags say things like 'The language of the universe is math!' Utter hogwash. We didn't discover math, we invented it! We invented the number line and created its parameters and internal logic and imposed it on the universe. Lo and behold it (generally) works! Yes but that's because the universe is so infinitely fucking huge that you could impose any kind of logical graffiti on it and eventually find some positive rejoinder. If a 'week' was 8 days, our entire calendar would be different but we'd still proclaim that it was perfect. If a foot was 14 inches instead of 12, our observations and calculations would be different and yet just as realistic. We invented the rules and the logic--we could've invented anything and told ourselves it was what God wanted us to find!
But that don't mean the universe is always going to catch us when we fall.
On the other hand, we didn't invent the economy, we discovered it. Laws of supply and demand transcend us and we can only hope to fumble our through this material world. The math is only as good as its inputs--and you can't put in everything there is. Our knowledge is always necessarily limited. Ignorance is our true state of being and striding through the markets like a 'Master of the Universe' (totally digging Bonfire of the Vanities right now), is hubris waiting to get brought low. Mortgage derivatives react differently when the market it going up as to when its going down, found that out the hard way.
Afterwards I was able to see Teller (aka Penn's better half). He began by talking of magicians who give their tricks away (a trademark of Penn & Teller among others) and suggested that the real trick was not giving away as much as you think. Then he showed a video of a routine he does in the current Penn & Teller show. It is a quaint piece where he is able to make a ball follow him around the stage, roll up a bench, jump through hoops and all sorts of other curious maneuvers. He wondered aloud if we would appreciate the routine better if we knew how he put it together. He then gave the history of the ball illusion (a legendary magician from a century ago), how he pulls it off (two strings attached to the wall) and even his aesthetic choices of how to build his own routine from this old timey chestnut. It was all very entertaining and when he mixed in a trick or two while he spoke, it was like seeing Dimaggio leg out an infield hit. Then he showed the video again and I gotta say, it was better the second time around. But mostly what struck me was it seemed that he was doing things with the ball that he hadn't explained, making the routine all the more remarkable. Grand! In Mamet-like fashion he showed us a trick and then proceeded to trick us with it again. Good stuff.
As a public speaker he is clumsy, even after all his time giving the same power point lecture, he's smart but not terribly charismatic. Even his attempts at humor fell flat: jabs at Frenchmen probably work just about everywhere in America but his Levantine sensibility has a depth that just doesn't translate to Louisville, Kentucky. He reminds me of Philip K. Dick in that sense: fascinating ideas ineffectually presented.
During the Q&A period, a woman got up and in a pleading voice asked him to guide us. She wondered how we were to take this skepticism and turn it into a bold idea--we were at the Idea Festival, after all. Of course he had no worthwhile reply (some blather about teaching history without theory attached to it, which is quite a bit less possible than it sounds). I wondered whether she felt vindicated for sticking the stuffed shirt or bewildered at how this obviously capable thinker could fail to formulate a plan. I suspect it was the latter which will eventually morph into the former because go-getters like her just cannot comprehend that intellectual avenues are dead ends--even the useful ones! All of them without exception from thermodynamics to nutrition to economics to religion, where did they go? You get innovation and then confusion, then you hope for more innovation. But philosophy is a bitch goddess: for nuclear power you get nuclear weaponry; for technology driven capitalism that gives the economy an enormous boost comes credit default swaps that can rare up and snatch all the gains back in one big gulp; for Ruth, Mays and Aaron you get McGwire, Sosa and Bonds; for Shrodinger's cat you get that same cat's corpse. Bitch goddess, whadda ya gonna do?
We often hear wags say things like 'The language of the universe is math!' Utter hogwash. We didn't discover math, we invented it! We invented the number line and created its parameters and internal logic and imposed it on the universe. Lo and behold it (generally) works! Yes but that's because the universe is so infinitely fucking huge that you could impose any kind of logical graffiti on it and eventually find some positive rejoinder. If a 'week' was 8 days, our entire calendar would be different but we'd still proclaim that it was perfect. If a foot was 14 inches instead of 12, our observations and calculations would be different and yet just as realistic. We invented the rules and the logic--we could've invented anything and told ourselves it was what God wanted us to find!
But that don't mean the universe is always going to catch us when we fall.
On the other hand, we didn't invent the economy, we discovered it. Laws of supply and demand transcend us and we can only hope to fumble our through this material world. The math is only as good as its inputs--and you can't put in everything there is. Our knowledge is always necessarily limited. Ignorance is our true state of being and striding through the markets like a 'Master of the Universe' (totally digging Bonfire of the Vanities right now), is hubris waiting to get brought low. Mortgage derivatives react differently when the market it going up as to when its going down, found that out the hard way.
Afterwards I was able to see Teller (aka Penn's better half). He began by talking of magicians who give their tricks away (a trademark of Penn & Teller among others) and suggested that the real trick was not giving away as much as you think. Then he showed a video of a routine he does in the current Penn & Teller show. It is a quaint piece where he is able to make a ball follow him around the stage, roll up a bench, jump through hoops and all sorts of other curious maneuvers. He wondered aloud if we would appreciate the routine better if we knew how he put it together. He then gave the history of the ball illusion (a legendary magician from a century ago), how he pulls it off (two strings attached to the wall) and even his aesthetic choices of how to build his own routine from this old timey chestnut. It was all very entertaining and when he mixed in a trick or two while he spoke, it was like seeing Dimaggio leg out an infield hit. Then he showed the video again and I gotta say, it was better the second time around. But mostly what struck me was it seemed that he was doing things with the ball that he hadn't explained, making the routine all the more remarkable. Grand! In Mamet-like fashion he showed us a trick and then proceeded to trick us with it again. Good stuff.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
$700 billion = drop in the bucket.
From the Wikipedia entry: Credit Default Swaps
In the US, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reported the notional amount on outstanding credit derivatives from reporting banks to be $16.4 trillion at the end of March, 2008. (To put these numbers in perspective, the CIA World Fact Book estimated the US GDP for 2007 was $13 trillion.)
So the problem is potentially bigger than our entire GDP? Hmmm, that's a pickle. And:
The Bank for International Settlements reported the notional amount on outstanding OTC credit default swaps to be $42.6 trillion in June 2007, up from $28.9 trillion in December 2006 & $13.9 trillion in December 2005. By the end of 2007 there were an estimated US$ 45 to 62.2 trillion worth of Credit Default Swap contracts.
On the one hand its only like 3% of the mortgages have defaulted; on the other hand 3% of $45 trillion is a big ass number! Surely they'd tell us if the problem was this huge, right? (Bra ha ha!) Its not impossible that we truly are on the brink of ruin but I doubt it. The US government is still (uh, hopefully) big enough to eat this loss and digest it whereas no Wall Street entity could survive this gorging. Now the Treasury has to buy up the bad debt, make it disappear from balance sheets around the world and absorb it for a year or two so that everyone else can go back to overvaluing their homes and other assets with dubious derivative schemes. The US rides in to suck up the black hole and splash around some money so that banks that don't want to lend any more will get in a giving mood.
It seems to me that dumping huge infusions of cash (as if from a helicopter) into the economy would lower interest rates and currency values raising gold and oil prices but I guess the lack of liquidity is more of a problem. Oh! And none of this raises home values! So the price to be paid will be after the housing market works itself out. Until then you can pretty much count on higher commodity prices, negativity nabobs all over your TV and another 'economic stimulus' package in spring 2009.
In the US, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reported the notional amount on outstanding credit derivatives from reporting banks to be $16.4 trillion at the end of March, 2008. (To put these numbers in perspective, the CIA World Fact Book estimated the US GDP for 2007 was $13 trillion.)
So the problem is potentially bigger than our entire GDP? Hmmm, that's a pickle. And:
The Bank for International Settlements reported the notional amount on outstanding OTC credit default swaps to be $42.6 trillion in June 2007, up from $28.9 trillion in December 2006 & $13.9 trillion in December 2005. By the end of 2007 there were an estimated US$ 45 to 62.2 trillion worth of Credit Default Swap contracts.
On the one hand its only like 3% of the mortgages have defaulted; on the other hand 3% of $45 trillion is a big ass number! Surely they'd tell us if the problem was this huge, right? (Bra ha ha!) Its not impossible that we truly are on the brink of ruin but I doubt it. The US government is still (uh, hopefully) big enough to eat this loss and digest it whereas no Wall Street entity could survive this gorging. Now the Treasury has to buy up the bad debt, make it disappear from balance sheets around the world and absorb it for a year or two so that everyone else can go back to overvaluing their homes and other assets with dubious derivative schemes. The US rides in to suck up the black hole and splash around some money so that banks that don't want to lend any more will get in a giving mood.
It seems to me that dumping huge infusions of cash (as if from a helicopter) into the economy would lower interest rates and currency values raising gold and oil prices but I guess the lack of liquidity is more of a problem. Oh! And none of this raises home values! So the price to be paid will be after the housing market works itself out. Until then you can pretty much count on higher commodity prices, negativity nabobs all over your TV and another 'economic stimulus' package in spring 2009.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
MLB Playoffs
I'll take:
Phillies over Brewers in 4
Cubs over Dodgers in 5
White Sox over Rays in 5
Angels over Red Sox in 5
Oh, its looking like an all Chicago World Series. Spooky.
Phillies over Brewers in 4
Cubs over Dodgers in 5
White Sox over Rays in 5
Angels over Red Sox in 5
Oh, its looking like an all Chicago World Series. Spooky.
Did I ever tell you...
..how much I love Frisky Dingo? The 1st season is on DVD, the 2nd season is still getting re-runned (I think) on Cartoon Network, so 'get on the bus!' The buzz is that there will be no 3rd season but that supporting characters, the X-tcles (or are they the Decepticles?) will be getting they're own show soon enough. Check it out, it makes me laugh a lot. 'I put you in the dumpster because I thought you were dead! I mean, what would Jesus do?'
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