Monday, October 25, 2010

World Series predictions

AL: My initial predictions fell flat, but I must confess I knew nothing about the Rangers beyond Josh Hamilton and Cliff Lee. That said, I thought the Yankees wouldn't be able hang, their pitching was just too dicey, and that's why I gave the Twins more than a puncher's chance to upset them. But it was the Rangers who exposed them as old and unorganized. Apart from game 5, which the Rangers completely mailed in, they dominated the Yankees, beat them in every way again and again--and the Rays, too. I thought the Rays were the best team coming in and my pick to take the AL pennant, but the Rangers made quick work of them, hammering them early and often in the first two games and then dropping Cliff Lee on 'em in the game 5. The Rays looked unprepared, like they were looking ahead to the Yankees instead of finishing the opponent that was in front of them and their pitching flat out disappeared.

I knew about Lee but I was impressed with CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis too, their starting pitching is for real. Didn't see much of their bullpen and what I did see didn't get me too excited. But they can score, they can run the bases, they didn't crumble on defense (like the Twins and Reds did) and if that starting pitching holds up, they will be tough to beat.

NL: I thought the Giants pitching matched up well with the Phillies and that Philly would really have to come alive to get past the Giants. I expected them to do so. But they did not. The Phillies just didn't play smart baseball against the Giants. They overwhelmed the Reds but that was as much Cincy's inexperience and obvious nerves as it was Philly's dominance. Philly didn't need much offense to get past Cincinnati and they didn't get that part of their game going like they needed to. (Hmmm, I've already completely forgotten the Giants-Braves series, left not much of an impression on me...) While picking the Phillies over the Giants was the easy choice, looking back its plain to see that SF had to work harder to get there and were in game shape while the Phillies cruised past Cincy with nothing more than superior pitching. Ah, but the Giants have pretty good pitching too. And I don't think we saw the best of Lincecum or Sanchez in this series--frankly, that's how bad the Philly offense was! Whereas the Giants (like the Rangers) were opportunistic on the base paths, the Phillies kept waiting for home runs and ill-timed errors to get them home. While the Rangers dominated the Yankees, the Giants did just enough to beat the Phillies, they eked out the close ones.

I love the intensity of the Giants. I've got a total man-crush on Buster Posey now--superstar!--and Brian Wilson is a true shutdown closer. And that team is gritty, gutty and determined. The Braves were none of those things and the Phillies weren't either.

WS: This is a great match-up, two scrappy underdogs with great starting pitching and timely offense. I know the talk radio crowd laments how poor the ratings will be (yeah, San Francisco and Dallas are jerkwater towns in the middle of nowhere!), but what do I care? I love this match-up--think how lame another Yankees-Phillies WS would've been after what we've just seen? While I love the Ranger offense, I think I like Giant pitching to be even more dominant than they were against Philly. If the Giant offense can be as aggressive against Wilson, Lee and Lewis as it was against Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels, then I think they'll score enough runs to win. And while the Rangers have been a terrific road team this post-season, I like the Giants to take game 7 at home. Giants in 7 (1,3,5,7). (Or: If the Giants pitching isn't top notch, the Rangers could roll them)

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