Saturday, January 10, 2009

NFL playoffs, week 2

Ravens at Titans (-3), 34.5
Hope you like defense because this game is gonna grind. The Ravens are peaking at the right time, that D is as fearsome as anything I've seen in a while. That said, as good as the Ravens D has been, I think the Titans have good depth on the defensive side and the Ravens offense won't be as formidable as the Titan running game. I'm still not sold on Flacco or Magahee, whereas I've become a big believer in the Brown/White tandem and I think Kerry Collins will do just enough to make the difference--and if the Titans D scores a pick 6, then its all over. Titans 16-10 (Titans and the under).

Cards at Panthers (-10), 48.5
I hate those double digit spreads--especially in the playoffs! But I gotta say, I can see Carolina laying a major beatdown on Arizona. I'm not buying the time zone problems the Cards have had this year, this is the playoffs and everybody plays hard and plans to win every time. But I am buying the nagging injuries the Cards are putting up with, their greatest strength is the speed on the outside and with Boldin and Fitzgerald coming in tweeked, the Panthers defensive schemes just got a lot easier. I think the Panthers will run the ball effectively, wear down the Cards D and get a handful of big plays down field just to run up the score. I usually imagine a whole bunch of possible scenarios and then choose the one I think is likeliest. But in this case all I see is a thrashing. Panthers 31-10 (Panthers and the under).

Eagles at Giants (-4), 40
The Eagles have been surging lately, they've been getting all the attention and it makes the Giants seem vulnerable. I'm not buying it. I love McNabb and Westbrook as much as the next guy but they're both going to need to be pitch perfect to win at the Meadowlands in January. Eli is ready to show that he is for real, that running game is rested and ready to slice up the Eagles blitz-happy D, and the Giant pass rush is gearing up for a big day. The Giants will get out to an early lead, hold the ball and frustrate McNabb. To the conventional wisdom it all sets up for an Eagle upset but to my eye it all sets up for a Giant beatdown. (This is still the most intriguing game because I could, of course, by waaaaaaay off) NYG 31-14 (Giants and the over).

Chargers at Steelers (-6), 38
Steelers were my pre-season pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl (against the Cowboys incidentally, oops). The Steelers have looked formidable at times this season, they've also looked inept at times. Sometimes Big Ben is the man, other times he still looks like a rookie--I think his game has the widest quality control swing of any QB in the league these days. The Charger pass rush is getting better but it certainly isn't what it has been in the past and while the Charger offense is getting surprise mileage out of Darren Sproles but it isn't what it has been in the past either. So who are the Chargers? Are they any good at all or are they just hot at the right time? Phillip Rivers is perhaps the best player in the league right now--he had a phenomenal season--and its hard to bet against him but I just don't know what I see when I look at the rest of that squad. I just can't imagine the Steelers D getting shown up at home in January by such a schizophrenic squad as San Diego, but I don't see the Steelers running away with it either, this one should be close throughout. Steelers 20-16 (Chargers and the under).

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