NFL playoffs

Ah, I do love to prognosticate! Forecating the future, a hopelessly impossible task, is my favorite thing in the whole world. Truth be told that's why I love sports so much: so many opportunities to predict! Here's this week's picks:

1/03 4:30 PM ET
Atlanta 51 (0ver)
Arizona +1
To me the Falcons were easily the most surprising team in the league this year. A year ago they were a mediocre team mired in turmoil with an unknown head coach ready to hand the reins to a rookie QB--a recipe for Detroit-style disaster. And yet Ryan the rookie outperformed the hype, Michael Turner turned out to be the single most important free agent pickup of the off-season (and my personal choice for MVP) and Roddy White emerged as an All-Pro wideout. During the year they had a respectable 3-2 record against playoff teams and now they find themselves against the enigmatic Cardinals.

The Cards started 7-3 but lost 4 of their last 6--and a coupla those were memorable defeats! They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and eked one out against the Cowboys (the beginning of their demise, if you'll recall), but didn't fare well against playoff teams. They're capable of piling up huge offensive numbers and they're just as capable of mailing it in. This is their first home playoff game since…I don't know--ever?

I think the Falcons are a better team and though they're so-so on the road, I think their lack of experience won't hinder them against another team with no experience of winning in January. I like this one to be a high scoring shootout, kick the post-season off with a bang.
Falcons 34-27 Cards. (Falcons and the over)

1/03 8:00 PM ET
Indianapolis 50 (over)
San Diego +1
The Colts came into this season with a lot of injuries and a rugged schedule. With the Titans becoming an unexpected juggernaut, Indy had to fight for their lives in a way that they're not accustomed to. And yet they are where they are supposed to be and peaking at just the right time.

The Chargers were woeful for the first half of the season. The pass rush disappeared without Merriman and LT just doesn't look like the dominating force he used to be. Rivers had an excellent season but they didn't get much luck this year--until the Broncos collapsed and personally invited the Chargers back into relevance. The Chargers are looking lean and mean at the moment, that offense is starting to kick in.

These are arguably the two hottest teams in the league right now. Indy got over their moribund start and are currently on an 8 game winning streak, San Diego is back from the dead and on a 4 game winning streak. Should be interesting. Manning the MVP is certainly capable of shredding the lackluster Charger secondary but I think Rivers is just as capable of shredding the lackluster Colts secondary. This one may come down to turnovers and kick returns. I'll go with the home team in another exciting shootout.
Chargers 35-31 Colts. (Chargers and the over)

1/04 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore 37 (over)
Miami +3
The Ravens have been deteriorating over the last few years. Billick finally got run out of town when McNair showed he just couldn't do it any more. That offense got so bad that their stellar D just couldn't hold down the fort and that lead to dissension and finger-pointing. But the Raven running game is back on track and they, too, feature a surprising rookie QB. I don't think Flacco is the natural that Ryan is but he's a fine game-manager and has the talent to make a play or two with the game on the line.

The Dolphins resurrection is to some the story of the year. But I would suggest that 1-15 teams are never as bad as they look (0-16 teams on the other hand are exactly as bad as they look!). You need a lot of bad luck to do that badly with an NFL roster, there were injuries and a clueless head coach and those are hard to overcome. Parcells cleaned out the dead wood, upgraded the QB and the head coach and the Dolphins avoided the injury bug that cripples even the finest squads. With Brady going down and the Bills and the Jets being mere mirages in the AFC East, I'm actually not that surprised by Miami's success. They won 8 out of their last 9 though the schedule was pretty soft (damn, they were 6-2 on the road!).

The exciting shootouts that Saturday offers up come to a thudding halt first thing Sunday afternoon. Ravens-Dolphins will be all about defense and grinding 3rd down conversions. The Dolphins play hard and will keep it close but I like the Ravens to be good enough down the stretch. If B-more gets a defensive TD that should just about cap it.
Ravens 17-12. (Ravens and the under)

1/04 4:30 PM ET
Philadelphia 42.5 (over)
Minnesota +2
Philly was up and down like…the stock market? (No that was just down this year) Well anyway, at times they looked like contenders and at others they just looked inept in every way. McNabb is probably on his way out regardless of how they do in the playoffs and Reid is not likely to get another contract extension next time around. So this is probably the end of an era in Philly. They've got the talent to make it all the way or they could get waxed in Minneapolis and never be the same again. They're that kind of team. 4-2 against playoff teams.

Minnesota started the year with unrealistic expectations. Peterson is a badass (dude, I knew he would be) but one good RB doesn't put you in the playoffs just like that. The D is shakey, the QB is not a strong suit and they're turnover-prone, which adds up to no good. They gutted it out, took advantage of Green Bay and Chicago bungling through the season and here they are with a home playoff game against a beatable Eagles squad. Vindication or luck? Isn't this exactly how the season was supposed to go? They're 7-2 since the bye week with the two losses being a close one at Tampa Bay and at home to the surging Falcons. Not bad, they're playing pretty good ball right now.

I'd like to say the Eagles will rise up like veterans and pull this one out, but I don't think so. I think the Vikings are quietly putting together a nice run and as long as they avoid turnovers, I think they can force the Eagles into making mistakes.
Vikings 24-20 Eagles. (Vikings and the over)

All right, we'll see.