Lakers 89-85 Spurs

Missed the first half but caught all of the second. Coming out of half the Lakers looked lethargic, their attack was lazy and unfocused and on the other end Ginobli got a little hot allowing Duncan to wheel and deal effectively. The Spurs added to their halftime lead and while I knew the Lakers had a run in them, I thought the game was just about out of control. But of course right then as the Spurs got the lead up to 20, Kobe took over and that was that. Even with a 20-point lead you could see the Spurs were in trouble. Ginobli wobbled, Parker didn't control the game the way he usually does (and probably has to) and while Duncan was in classic form (he still sucks at FT's), the rest of the supporting cast didn't show. Pau Gasol got off--he and Kobe make a formidable tandem.

But the supporting cast is best at home--my theory as to why the home team always win in the NBA--and the Lakers got good performances out of Vujicic and Radmanovic (each chipping in 10 pts/5 reb), which they'll be hard pressed to duplicate back in Texas. The Spurs on the other hand didn't get the increase in marginal production out of Ginobli's extra minutes that they were looking for and Michael Finley went 0-5. Those trends won't hold and the Spurs will get their points from those two over the course of this series.

I failed to get my full series prediction in before game 1 but here it is: Lakers in 7. Like the Celtics in the east, I think the resurgent old-timey power pulls it out against the recent conference dominator. Unlike the east, however, I don't think the home team wins every night. The Spurs will win in Cali, the Lakers will win in Texas (I like the Spurs in game 2, Lakers in game 3). But once it's down to the last game, I'll stick with the home team. In this case, I'll even make the further prediction that the Lakers will be down in the 4th quarter of game 7 and have to rally. That said, one of my other thoughts about this series, that each game would be close from beginning to end, has already been blown. I didn't think either team would have a 20-point lead at any time in this series and while the Spurs didn't have it for long, they did have it. But both of these teams can score plenty of points quickly so perhaps leads and runs are in the cards.