Tour de France 2008

From the Tour de France website:

Carlos Sastre spent three weeks being sheltered by his CSC-Saxo Bank colleagues before delivering the decisive blow on the heralded summit of L’Alpe d’Huez. It was a 13km effort that saw him ascend the steep slope leading to the ski station on his own, onward to victory and into the lead of the general classification. Before the 17th stage he was ranked fourth overall, 49 seconds behind his team-mate Frank Schleck; after it, his advantage was 1 minute 24 seconds over the next best rider.

But it was his performance in the time trial when he finished 12th and minimized his losses to Cadel Evans that the victory was sealed. The Australian gained another seven seconds thanks to a split in the peloton in the final sprint – meaning that, for a second successive year, the Silence-Lotto recruit finished within a minute of a Spanish rider – but the elation of Sastre’s team was evident at the finish in Paris.

Not only did CSC-Saxo Bank win the yellow jersey, Andy Schleck claimed the white jersey as the best young rider and the squad won the team classification with a dominant display. The 33-year-old is the seventh Spaniard to win the Tour de France and he celebrated his success with his children by his side on the podium in the center of the Champs-Elysees. The final stage was won by Gert Steegmans who finally gave the Quickstep something to savor in the 95th edition of the Tour.

I don't care what anybody says, July is the cruelest month. The heat just kept going up and it drove me to cooler climes for book reading and movie watching. I haven't spent as much time on-line lately or even watching my shows (like Tour de France highlights), so I didn't get into the Tour this year like I'd hoped. Too bad, its a great sporting event, always one of the most fascinating year in and year out. I didn't make a prediction but I had my eye on Cadel Evans who finished 2nd, not bad for a cycling novice like myself. Carlos Sastre, though, is the man of the hour, the guy in the winner's circle getting smooched by fashion models, the guy with big bouquet and the admiration of Frenchmen all over the world. Go get some, Charlie.

Russell 2000 (Jul 18-25)

.........693.08 (7.18.8) ...................... 709.56 (7.25.8)......
............................+16.48 for the week.......................

This week's economic events

Jul 21-25

Leading Indicators Jun (-0.1%)
Crude Inventories 07/19 (-1558K)
Fed's Beige Book
Initial Claims 07/19 (406K)
Existing Home Sales Jun (4.86M)
Durable Orders Jun (0.8%)
Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul (61.2)
New Home Sales Jun (530K)

Wilshire 5000, 7.25.8

Harrington +3

I must admit that the British Open is one of my least favorite events of the sports calendar. Its all about the weather, a test of endurance rather than skill. That's fine for a triathlon or spring football but I want to see the best of the best duking it out someplace civilized--is that too much to ask? (It reminds me of the early days of the MLS when they insisted on holding their championships in Foxboro just before Thanksgiving, a real sexy time of year in the northeast) This year was no exception, from the beginning it was wreaking havoc on the leaderboard--Rich Beem straight up split!

This was all to the advantage--surprisingly enough--to the newly married Greg Norman. The Shark navigated the winds like a master seaman and came out in the lead after 3 rounds. He came out on Sunday with his bogey stick and fell behind quickly. But nobody played well enough to really make a difference, except Ian Poulter who came out of nowhere to finish a distant 2nd (reminiscent of Retief Goosen in his post-prime). I failed to make a prediction but I would've chosen KJ Choi (for my money the best golfer to not win a major--if that's a good thing!), who was lingering near the top until fading badly on Sunday.

Paddy Harrington played well enough to win on a tough day on the links. I dug the ballsy shots he took down the stretch. The hubris that felled Van de Velde and flummoxed Mickelson came shining through for Paddy. He nailed the approached on 17--a tough, tough shot--and that was ballgame. Another nice approach on 18 to tack on style points and he takes home another jug. He's only the 5th repeat champ in the last 80 years or so. Nice work.

Russell 2000 (Jul 11-18)

......... 674.95 (7.11.8) ...................... 693.08 (7.18.8)......
............................+18.13 for the week.......................

This week's economic events

Jul 14-18

NY Empire State Index Jul (-4.9)
Retail Sales Jun (0.1%)
Retail Sales ex-auto Jun (0.8%)
PPI Jun (1.8%)
Core PPI Jun (0.2%)
Business Inventories May (0.3%)
CPI Jun (1.1%)
Core CPI Jun (0.3%)
Net Foreign Purchases May ($67.0B)
Capacity Utilization Jun (79.9%)
Industrial Production Jun (0.5%)
Crude Inventories 07/12 (2952K)
FOMC Minutes Jun 25
Building Permits Jun (1091K)
Housing Starts Jun (1066K)
Initial Claims 07/12 (366K)
Philadelphia Fed Jul (-16.3)

Wilshire 5000, 7.18.8

Remember the Yukos!

Look who's applying for parole: Mikhail Khodorkovsky . Khodorkovsky was once a juiced-in Kremlin guy that was taken to task for biting the hand that fed him. Now he's about halfway through an 8-year stretch and bucking for a little freedom in the face of new and improved trumped-up charges.

I always thought he'd be back some day. Guys that rich are either supremely talented, motivated or lucky. Talent, desire and luck can waiver but they never disappear completely and those guys usually will their way back on to scene once pushed out. If he doesn't die a suspicious death, he'll re-appear as a man about Moscow, I just got a feeling. Whether his re-appearance is hostile or welcomed remains to be seen and he sure has a long way to go, but I suspect 'we'll hear from that kid one day and I don't just mean a postcard'.

AL 4-3 NL (15 inn)

Homefield advantage in most sports is traditionally awarded to the team that performed the best throughout the season in their division, conference or league. But not in baseball. Nope, the Major League awards the advantage to the team representing the league that won a freakin' exhibition game that is awkwardly timed and usually features a great deal of reluctant participation. That's just freakin' great!

Years ago there was a tie game in the all-star game and, though no one died and no children were kept out of school, a great clatter rose throughout the land. The local radio gave everyone their chance to blame a draw in baseball for everything that had ever gone wrong in their lives. Do the fans really give a shit? Dude, these are the same fans that don't want Carmelo Anthony to play for his country so that he can save it all to be a Denver Nugget! (And you know good and well if Anthony ever wants to be a winner in his profession, he's got a much better shot with USA than with the Nuggets!) And does the commissioner actually have to cave into this kind of cultural pressure? Dude, he ignored steroids for over a decade, why can't he look the other way on this momentary spasm of nonsense?

I don't do overtime baseball. I will in the playoffs, maybe a regular season Indians game, but not at all in an exhibition game. This is exactly why making this game 'meaningful' is a foolish idea: what if that game goes a few more innings and Kazmir and Lidge end up throw 70-80 pitches on their days off? It might--might--seem worthwhile if Tampa and Philly end up in the World Series but if not then how can a team benefit from potentially injuring a rival pitcher? In a fucking exhibition game! Ludicrous! Silly! How can you make the game meaningful when you know good and well the best players will all be unavailable by the time its over? You start with the best players and the quality of play slowly deteriorates--even in an all-star game--as it wears on.

The game is meant to be a hoot, a goodwill exhibition where the players are motivated by bragging rights alone. Putting homefield advantage on it as some bogus way of making the game 'meaningful' misses the point that this particular game is supposed to be harmless. It’s a lark, a backdrop to the religious feast day commemorating the 'middle' of the baseball season. It’s a day off for the players and a tribute to the fans. No one needs it to solve the crisis in the Middle East! It can end in a tie--why is that a problem? Why do we need extra innings in a meaningless game? We don't, we never did! But giving Terry Francona the chance to run down Scott Kazmir's arm in a meaningless game with the Rays riding a 7-game losing streak strikes me as totally fuckin' bogus!

And besides, I didn't get to see the end of the game. (Soon enough I'll rail about the coming of instant replay but I'm gonna let that one marinate for another week or so)

World 3-0 USA
The futures game, on the other hand, I did watch and thoroughly enjoyed. I look forward to making this the game I look forward to every July rather than that silly show the big leaguers put on.

This one was a pitchers' duel, clearly the arms are better developed than the bats these days. We'll blame steroids but since last generation's pithcers were all just as juiced as the hitters, it seems to me this is probably a perfectly ordinary cyclical shift. The World scratched together a run in the 1st and added a 2-run rocket of Lin's bat (Red Sox prospect, the rich get richer) in the 7th to put it out of reach. I was struck that the World kept trying to take advantage of their speed even though they kept getting gunned down like clay pigeons. Frankly they weren't great baserunners: 1/5 stolen bases with 2 pickoffs--that's not good. Back-to-back pickoffs in the 3rd inning, don't believe I've ever seen that one before. As a Tribe fan I was pleased with Matt Laporta's effort, confident with the bat and flashed some nice leather over at 1st even though he's a natural LF, I'm ready to see that in the big show.

Russell 2000 (Jul 3-11)

......... 665.78 (7.3.8) ...................... 674.95 (7.11.8)......
............................+9.17 for the week.......................

Hasn't had an up week in a while, huh?

This week's economic events

Jul 7-11

Pending Home Sales May (-4.7%)
Wholesale Inventories May (0.8%)
Consumer Credit May ($7.8B)
Crude Inventories 07/05 (-5840K)
Initial Claims 07/05 (346K)
Export Prices ex-ag. Jun (0.9%)
Import Prices ex-oil Jun (0.9%)
Trade Balance May (-59.8B)
Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul (56.6)
Treasury Budget Jun ($50.7B)

Wilshire 5000, 7.11.8

New Borg meets New New Borg

Roger Federer SUI (1) 4 4 7 (7) 7 (10) 7
Rafael Nadal ESP (2) 6 6 6 (5) 6 (8) 9

Wow. That had everything tennis has to offer: great serves, great rallies, great athleticism, gritty determination, acts of God. The context. It had the context. These two are the best right now and will stay that way for the forseeable future.

The conventional wisdom is that Nadal has now passed Federer and the old Borg (5 straight Wimbledons) is on the way out as the new Borg (dominating French clay and English grass with equal aplomb) ascends. But I say Federer has now moved on from non-stop dominator to crafty veteran. He's not just gonna show up and cruise to the finals the way he has the past 5 years or so. But he's still better than Djokovic, Roddick, Dayvdenko, Blake, all of them. Nadal's sheer athleticism and good instincts are the only competition Federer faces--even now, even after the thrashing at Roland Garros and the marathon death march at the All-England.

I was doubtful of Federer's potential at the US but now I think New York concrete may be where Federer regains his advantage over Nadal. Though Nadal has struggled on the hard courts, he too is better than Djokovic, et al., and I like the chances of seeing another Federer-Nadal final. And on the broiling concrete, I like Federer. I know Nadal is the superior athlete and at his absolute peak right now, but on the concrete his speed gets exaggerated, his knees get weary, his feet get hot, he's not comfortable, it throws off his timing and concentration. Federer needs only the slightest opening and New York offers that.

Damn, three slams with the same finalists in 1 year?

Chestnut (OT) 59-59 Kobayashi

Man, that hot dog eating contest is strangely riveting entertainment. Like all of Vegas compressed into a few dozen hot dogs. And the dog-off! There was actually a tie previously: in 1980 Paul Siederman & Joe Baldini tied and tied again after the dog-off and were declared co-winners. Can you imagine that in today's competitive eating enviroment? Arlen Specter would never let it rest!

Check out the steady escalation of dog eating abilities of these people. The 25.5 dogs that Arai took down in 2000 was the world record at the time. Kobayashi (50) almost doubles that record the next year! From then on he's putting up fitty like Jordan in MSG. He wins 6 straight years but he's dusting the field, so while he's putting world class numbers he's not being pushed to his limits. Sonya Thomas sets the women's world record in 2003 (25), goes on to finish 3rd in 2004 (32) and in 2005 gives Kobayashi the best competition he's had (49-37). The 12 dog victory is his lowest margin of victory from 2001-2005.

There's no competition for the man until Chestnut (52) comes along in 2006 and pushes Kobayashi (53.75) to a new world record. But in 2007, the torch is passed. Even though Kobayashi (63) tacks 10 more dogs onto his personal best--the standing world record--and still can't handle Chestnut's (66) intensity. Chestnut pounds out a new world record and easily outpaces the 6-time champ. (Sonya Thomas is still around and though she finished a distant 5th this year she did set a new women's record)

This year the competition moved to a ten-minute match (in previous years I believe it was 15 minutes), which explains this year's lowered nominal totals now stand as new records. Chestnut and Kobayashi tie at 59 and go to a dog-off. Riveting, man, I gotta say. I've never noticed one way or the other about this thing until last year when I totally got into Chestnut dethroning the long-reigning champ. Context is everything and this one had drama and features the two greatest champs ever in the history of this bizarre American ritual in their prime. Good competition is what America thrives on and we deserve this.

Kobayashi and Chestnut are the Federer and Nadal of the competitive eating universe and it’s a pleasure to behold. Plus, I really like hot dogs.

Russell 2000 (Jun 27-Jul 3)

......... 698.14 (6.27.8) ...................... 665.78 (7.3.8)......
............................-33.36 for the period.......................

This week's economic events

Jun 30-Jul 3

Auto Sales Jun (4.9M)
Truck Sales Jun (5.0M)
Construction Spending May (-0.4%)
ISM Index Jun (50.2)
ADP Employment Jun (-79K)
Factory Orders May (0.6%)
Crude Inventories 06/28 (-1982K)
Unemployment Rate Jun (5.5%)
Nonfarm Payrolls Jun (-62K)
Average Workweek Jun (33.7)
Hourly Earnings Jun (0.3%)
Initial Claims 06/28 (404K)
ISM Services Jun (48.2)

Wilshire 5000, 7.3.8

US Open Soccer

U.S. Open Cup Third Round
FC Dallas (MLS) 2 : 1 Miami FC (USL-1)
Charleston (USL-1) 1 : 1 (aet) Houston (MLS)
(Charleston advance on PK’s, 4-3)
DC United (MLS) 2 : 0 Rochester (USL-1)
Carolina (USL-1) 2 : 4 (aet) Kansas City (MLS)
CP Baltimore (USL-2) 2 : 0 New York (MLS)
New England (MLS) 3 : 0 Richmond (USL-2)
Chicago (MLS) 4 : 1 Cleveland (USL-2)
Seattle (USL-1) 2 : 0 Chivas USA (MLS)

MLS goes 5-3 against the USL. I guess that's pretty good. Houston probably should've finished off Charleston: the Battery were down to 10 men by the end of regulation and 9 by the end of OT! The 2-time defending champs need to get it done on the road. KC Wizards were the only road team to advance with both NY and Chivas getting handled easily down minor league way. I like the MLS from here on out so I'll take Houston, KC, New England, Chicago to the semis.

AU not always gold

The African Union summit ended with little fanfare Tuesday, as these meetings often do. The world was waiting for the assembled leadership to condemn Robert Mugabe's stranglehold on Zimbabwe and no one budged. Mugabe himself was clearly rattled by the media attention but African leaders are loath to call out the man they've been hailing as a post-colonial hero for the last 20 years. And with food security rather far down the agenda, it seems that the African Union is settling in for another year of toothless, disinterested bureaucracy.

International summits such as this will continue to become the norm and that's fine, these institutions are generally useless but they're probably better than nothing. But hailing them as progress will get more disillusioning with each year that passes. The African Union passed up a golden opportunity to announce itself as an anti-dictator organ. Maybe next time.

Of course, the danger with anti-Mugabe rhetoric (PBS Newshour Transcipt about Mugabe) is that Tsangerai will get elevated to genius/humanitarian of the African continent and everybody looks the other way while he butchers his people. The stage is set for a worldwide figure to emerge from sub-Saharan world, is Tsangerai that guy? While I certainly don't mind an international overthrow of Mugabe, I agree that unilateral force would be counterproductive. Multilateral force might be inspirational but I'm not holding my breath.